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发表于 2012-10-2 04:17 PM
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No trade for today. The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:
Big Troop:
- EFA 10% (10%-09/06)
- EEM 15% (15%-08/31)
- SPY 20% (10%-07/11, 10%-07/24)
- Cash 55%
SAC Troop:
- Cash 100%
The market gapped up but breached yesterday's low and closed as a pin with mid-size lower shadow, indicating that the market has found a support for short term range trading. Our observation points can be narrowed into a smaller range: 1. Yesterday's high (1457), and 2. Today's low (1439). Before breaking out one of those two points, the market stays in range trading. Breakout of 1457 will bring the market to challenge last month's high. Falling below 1439 will bring the market to 1413. (If you are more aggressive, once the market breaks today's high 1451.52, it forms higher highs and higher lows, which means that you don't need to wait 1457!)
Wave count (based on the purple line scenario):
06/19's high = [A]
07/24's low = [B]
08/21's high = I
09/04's low = II
09/14's high = III
09/20's low = a
09/21's high = b
09/26's low = IV.c
09/27's high = 1
10/02's low = 2
10/04's high = 3
10/08's low = 4
10/09's high = V.5 (1490)
We are in wave-V bull run to 1485-1490 to end the bull market.
Alternative count (based on the grey line scenario):
09/26's low = c
10/01's hight = x
10/04's low = IV.c (of abc where the previous abc is of a lower degree)
10/10's low = IV.c (of a second abc to form double three)
In this case, the correction ends at 1413.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2012-10-2 12:30 PM
发表于 2012-10-2 01:56 PM
