2012-08-W3

Diffusion

snowrider

We bought EDZ and sold EWS today.  The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:

Big Troop:
- IWM 20% (20%-08/08)
- SPY 45% (10%-07/05, 15%-07/06, 10%-07/11, 10%-07/24)
- Cash 35%

SAC Troop:
- XLF 22% (10%-07/30, 12%-07/31)
- QQQ 24% (24%-08/02)
- FAS 8% (8%-08/13)
- NUGT 3% (3%-08/21)
- EDZ 8% (8%-08/22)
- Cash 35%

The market gapped down but upped at close.  Today's low was significant because it hit 0.618 pullback (SPY 08/10-08/21) and also an up-going trendline (07/24, 08/02).  Our preferred bullish scenario does not change, as long as the critical point does not break:  today's low.

Wave count (based on the purple line scenario):
07/03's high = [A]
07/24's low = [B]
07/30's high = [C].I
08/02's low = [C].II
08/07's high = [C].III.1
08/10's low = [C].III.2
08/21's high = [C].III.3
Today's low = [C].III.4
The first target 1438 (1427-1396+1407) could be seen tomorrow to complete [C].III.5
The big wave-[C] will bring the market to 1524 in medium long term.

Irene2011

Thanks.

lilitulip

snowrider 发表于 2012-8-22 09:30 AM
時間偶還沒詳細計算 ... 先參照波圖灰線前半部的可能走法

i mean when you calculate the fib retrace, what low point do you use to measure, as i see you changes daily?

snowrider

lilitulip 发表于 2012-8-22 03:28 PM
i mean when you calculate the fib retrace, what low point do you use to measure, as i see you chan ...

Good point!  (Good question!) ... The fib ratios are very helpful to us for identifying waves.  Trading with EW is dealing with natual law ... it's all about the harmony between waves.  Say, when a corrective wave starts, we don't know what degree that wave is.  We want to find out what impulsive wave that corrective wave is relative to.  That is where the fib ratios come to play!

NYQ

最近从雪骑老大的wave分析中受益不小，多谢了！ 似乎对老大提出的wave3（C）最复杂开始有所体会。

BTW, 发现最近狐狸对波段特感兴趣。

bucks

NUGT is an excellent raid

bucks

If yesterday's low is lost, I guess the market will enter into a meaningful correction. But longer-term still bullish

snowrider

bucks 发表于 2012-8-23 07:36 AM
NUGT is an excellent raid

但是因為風險較大 所以偶倉位較小

snowrider

bucks 发表于 2012-8-23 07:38 AM
If yesterday's low is lost, I guess the market will enter into a meaningful correction. But longer-t ...

是的  偶也是這樣猜!  (劇情2)

bucks

回复 snowrider 的帖子

I bought a GDX-similar mutual fund in 401k from near bottom, and sold it on Tuesday. Missed the run yesterday, but I am happy enough. Just amazed by your determination to buy at high price

ethanlinear

现在是C。IV？This is the meaningful correction mentioned by Buck?

snowrider

bucks 发表于 2012-8-23 07:46 AM
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I bought a GDX-similar mutual fund in 401k from near bottom, and sold it on T ...

Since I chased at high price, the risk is high ... that's why the position is small (for risk control).

bucks

回复 ethanlinear 的帖子

I don't know waves. but in my system, yes, this would be a sizable correction. If you aim to longer-term, don't worry. There should be one more push up to exit or hold longs.

snowrider

ethanlinear 发表于 2012-8-23 08:21 AM
现在是C。IV？This is the meaningful correction mentioned by Buck?

可能是的 ... 偶們仍然不能排除上下洗刷的風險!

snowrider

偶今天不能灌太多水  因為一台電腦不知怎麼無法無線上網了

hometh

Jennyahwu

回复 snowrider 的帖子

snowride, why not buy tza instead of EDZ?

snowrider

Jennyahwu 发表于 2012-8-23 09:48 AM
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snowride, why not buy tza instead of EDZ?

Good question!  They both are bear ETFs.  I picked EDZ instead of TZA because EDZ has formed a flat area the past two weeks.  I wanted to bet that flat area became a base so that my STP order can be placed under that flat area.  I did not pick TZA becasue it had only one leg - it's hard to reverse unless a V bottom formed.

ethanlinear

回复 bucks 的帖子

Hi bucks, Thanks for your reply. Do you mind to tell me the target in your system for this correction?