Perfect Wave - 2012-2/2

snowrider

raintreebrea 发表于 2012-8-7 08:42 PM
哈哈，雪儿姐姐，偶这就告诉期期，西门和farshine.

Oh my gosh ... oh my gosh!  磨磨!  

snowrider

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raintreebrea

snowrider 发表于 2012-8-7 09:45 PM
Oh my gosh ... oh my gosh!  磨磨!

笑死偶了， 猜出来了，太晚了，抓住你了。

snowrider

raintreebrea 发表于 2012-8-7 09:07 PM
笑死偶了， 猜出来了，太晚了，抓住你了。

冤枉呀!  冤枉!  偶哪來的小蜜呀!  

oldfox

raintreebrea 发表于 2012-8-7 09:22 PM
猜猜我是谁？

snowrider

Wave Count

oldfox

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多谢 !!!

snowrider

http://perfectew.blogspot.com/20 ... er-i-have-been.html

From Arthur - Snowrider, I have been thinking about your "trade the waves you count, and count the waves you trade". Say, today is the first day I trade in USD/JPY, what is the step you take to ascertain where you are to enable you to trade?

I assume that you are referring to the article "Count Grand Super Cycle Wave or Not?" that mentions:

1. To trade the timeframe that we count the wave, and
2. To count the wave on the timeframe that we trade.

If so, the following lists the steps that I might take to start a trade:

1. Decide what degree (or timeframe) of the wave that you want to trade.  For example, if you want to trade wave-1,2,3,4,5,a,b,c etc., you won't worry about wave-I,II,III,IV,V,A,B,C.  From the preferred wave count as of last weekend (08/11/2012), you knew that a wave-2 has completed and a explosive wave-3 was about to start.  (To trade the timeframe that we count the wave.)

2. Enter the trade to buy USD/JPY (i.e., short sell JPY) on Sunday (or last Friday) to bet that the wave-1 was a correct assumption with Stop below wave-1 (very minimal risk).

3. The market has moved in favor of our assumption today, so we keep counting the wave by estimating wave-3's target and possibly wave-4 etc.  (To count the wave on the timeframe that we trade.)  Note that we don't worry about the wave moment of a higher degree timeframe because that is not our concern.  Our concern is to finish the trade of what we are trading:  wave-1,2,3,4,5!

Today:

Last weekend:

snowrider

http://perfectew.blogspot.com/2012/08/kiss-principle.html

Snowrider, Thank you for your response. May be I did not pick a good example. Say, today is the bottom of the previous (down) wave (before the establishment of wave 1 and 2), then how is one going to ascertain whether this is a 3-wave correction or a 5-wave progressive wave? Or, do you trade wave 1, 2 at all? Or, you will trade through all the 5 waves (in one hit), riding through the wave 2/4 corrections, a swing trade, or do you get out of wave 1, then position for wave 2, and then wave 3 ...... 4, and then 5.

When we deal with something very complex, a good idea is to simplify the process.  Keep it simple and stupid (KISS Principle).  How to?  We first look at the chart and make a guess (with some imagination) about what the wave structure the market is forming most likely.  With a scenario in our mind, we then *peg* an existing wave by assuming that wave is something.  For example, we make an assertion that the stock market is going to surge tomorrow because the market has finished wave-2 today.  With that assertion, we will need to find out two things:
1. what a correct movement (in favor of us) is, and
2. what market movement will invalidate our assertion
For example, if the market does surge, then our preferred wave count is correct;  if the market goes below yesterday's low, then the wave-2 has not finished yet.

About the second question, we need to understand what purpose each wave segment serves:
wave-1: recover after panic or climax
wave-2: accumulation
wave-3: moving the price
wave-4: distribution
wave-5: panic or climax (false break)
So my answer to your second question is that I trade wave-3 only most of the time.

oldfox

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NYQ

snowrider 发表于 2012-8-15 10:43 PM
http://perfectew.blogspot.com/2012/08/kiss-principle.html

Inconclusion: 1. 雪大喜欢意淫; 2. 怕高潮 。。。。

时时是好时

snowrider 发表于 2012-8-15 10:43 PM
http://perfectew.blogspot.com/2012/08/kiss-principle.html

请问雪大，如果主要作wave 3，那是不是说在我们判断到了wave 4和wave 5的阶段就要退出或者减仓。还是说不以猜测来操作，一切都等行情走出来再操作？

snowrider

时时是好时 发表于 2012-8-18 09:04 PM
请问雪大，如果主要作wave 3，那是不是说在我们判断到了wave 4和wave 5的阶段就要退出或者减仓。还是说不 ...

當偶們開一個新倉  要跟個OCO單:
1. LMT在第5波測量目標去獲利
2. STP(倒限單)在看錯時停損
當行情順著偶們的操作方向跑之後  偶們跟著移動倒限單過去以保持戰果 ... 最後行情進入了第4波時 ... LMT和STP就很近了(市場價位被夾在中間) ... 碰到哪個就是哪個價獲利出場

silicon_beaver

雪骑老大 today blamed few people doing homework.   

I did this weekend.
1. ETF
2. VIX
3. SPX

snowrider

silicon_beaver 发表于 2012-8-18 10:42 PM
雪骑老大 today blamed few people doing homework.   

I did this weekend.

I did not blame!  
就是各論壇都很冷清 所以偶猜大家都出去玩了!

时时是好时

雪大，今天在网上看到一篇文章，是关于波段操作信号的。看着是一种简单的懒人操作法，但作者是做的台指，不知道对美指是否适用，想听听雪大的评论。

利用「简易目测法」获取「波段大利益」的秘诀
http://www.haoib.com/read/tech/1705.html

snowrider

Wave Count

snowrider

時時的 wave count:
http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod ... 2&fromuid=17450

snowrider

OCO Order and Trading Wave-3

Ideally, it's true to stay away corrections in order to make life easier and to make the best use of the trading money to trade only the fastest movements.  However, it is not that easy to clearly identify a corrective wave.  Also, if you are managing a large fund, wave-2 is where you use for accumulating and wave-4 for distributing because it is not possible to get fully loaded at the very moment when wave-3 is confirmed.  Most of the time the confirmation is coming from the penetration of some key area, and it's very hard to load much when the market moves very fast at that moment.

About the idea to "trade only wave 3 (and 5) of wave C", it is essentially trading the impulsive wave of a lower timeframe.  (Remember that we talked about to trade the timeframe that we count the wave? in http://perfectew.blogspot.com/20 ... er-i-have-been.html)

snowrider

Wave Count - SP