Cost of carry is not the only driver of gold price. I agree that gold will drop if real interest rate go up from here.
However, if investers begin to dump treasury and get to a point that US credit is in trouble. That will translate into extrordinary high US rates and collapse of USD. In that case, gold can spkie more than anyone can expect.
The case I stated before is just tail risk.
The base case I believe is gold may go lower in the mid term. Chinese gold miners diverge largely with gold price, which post some warning signs of gold price topping.