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发表于 2011-2-25 11:23 AM
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有个原来中东的人昨天在我的blog comment，我觉得要注意：
Oil is near $100 not just for Libya, as I mentioned in Monday here that I was long oil and short Dow at the week open overnight when Asian market opened. what is happening in middle east is not been covered in details in majore news channels or websites. I said here that I wil add more long positions in oil in any pullback and I did in Wednsday. WHY?
because Aljeria and Bahrain are in BOILING POINT here, if government didn't reach agreement with people then oil can easly breaks all time high in less than a month and S&P can easly test 2010 high (1210). And market could go to "out of control price".. remeber and a reminder : Dow was near the high and oil was in 80's when Gadaffi's son start to explain what he will do in future and market responded. there are another reasone for oil and gold rally and equity decline but if I want to explain it I will type more than this :)
but let me sumerize it: what happened this week is not effecting US directly, it is because will effect Europ very bad. Oil was up not because speculation only but because the supply already been reduced (Lybia's oil is one of the finest in the world - Bahrain will bring problem to Saudi Arabia - Aljeria is major supplier) and that is a fact and supply could be reduced more if Aljeria or bahrain uprest increaced and that could signal a civil war (as Gadaffi is doing now) which will push gold up more. another point, and that is look what heppen to equity whenever oil go above 90 ? they can't build an uptrend or at least any uptrend cannot be sustain in equity when oil at or above 90's.
(by the way, I closed my Dow shorts and Oil long because I am a trader at the end). Finally, I could be wrong who knows. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2011-2-25 11:13 AM
发表于 2011-2-25 11:30 AM
