灌水贴

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原帖由 xiaobailong 于 2008-5-5 09:13 发表

油价一跌，小布什的军队就在伊朗湾开两枪，这油价就又上去了。阿拉伯世界真要出什么事情，石油挖不出来，油价不是更要涨吗？

现在就看共和党是要大选，还是要眼前的石油利益。怎么样在这二者之间取得平衡。

 

要出事也会是幕后交易。至于到底是什么，我也不知道。本来写想写成Achilles' heel，because there is magic in Achilles' time, and I'll attribute the drop of oil price to magic stuff.

 

现在来看，大选和石油利益一致。油价降，经济复苏，共和党因为turn around economy而当选。哈哈，大团圆。

oldfrog

支持支持，朝四暮三，我不亏，你还高兴。

原帖由 还在发呆 于 2008-5-5 13:19 发表   要出事也会是幕后交易。至于到底是什么，我也不知道。本来写想写成Achilles' heel，because there is magic in Achilles' time, and I'll attribute the drop of oil price to magic stuff. " border="0"> &nbs ...

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原帖由 oldfrog 于 2008-5-5 13:25 发表 支持支持，朝四暮三，我不亏，你还高兴。

 

哈哈，说的好。

 

不知道这个所谓的经济衰退是不是真的是阴谋出来欺骗选民的，还是小布什走狗屎运。9/11让小布什顺利收拢民心，这次经济问题要是又被他偷鸡成功，这运气，他得踩上多大一摊狗屎，还得每天踩。

xiaobailong

原帖由 还在发呆 于 2008-5-5 13:30 发表 哈哈，说的好。 不知道这个所谓的经济衰退是不是真的是阴谋出来欺骗选民的，还是小布什走狗屎运。9/11让小布什顺利收拢民心，这次经济问题要是又被他偷鸡成功，这运气，他得踩上多大一摊狗屎，还 ...

不一定是运气呢。小布什知道兔死狗烹这个道理，老布什没能二次当选就是非常好的先例了。所以，对小布什来说，美国需要敌人。如果不是911，会有811， 711， 等等。如果不是阿拉伯人，会是俄罗斯人，中国人甚至非洲人。

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原帖由 xiaobailong 于 2008-5-5 15:40 发表 不一定是运气呢。小布什知道兔死狗烹这个道理，老布什没能二次当选就是非常好的先例了。所以，对小布什来说，美国需要敌人。如果不是911，会有811， 711， 等等。如果不是阿拉伯人，会是俄罗斯人，中国人甚至非洲人。 ...

 

赞!

jsl

 (My conspiracy theory )

 

我很少相信阴谋论。这回扯大了，就接着扯下去

 

As early as 2001, Bush started to emphasis the importance of Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). In the next 6 years, SPR has increased by 130+mm to 700mm bbls. Bush then pushed ethanol for oil independence and corn price exploded during 2006, 2007 and kept going up. Nearly one third of US corn harvest is used for ethanol production.  A third of the byproduct can be used for feeding livestock. This gives US strong negotiation power with Russia and OPEC. However, the battle just began. If the oil producers gave up now, they would have no weapon left. From game theory point of view, US is going to ...

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原帖由 jsl 于 2008-5-6 00:17 发表  (My conspiracy theory )   我很少相信阴谋论。这回扯大了，就接着扯下去   As early as 2001, Bush started to emphasis the importance of Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). In the next 6 ...

 

嘿嘿，看看我扯得是不是更大 

 

Bear’s Achilles’ Heel

jsl

The market has been gaining its momentum by trapping some bears along the way and turning them into reluctant bulls. “Is it real?” My little pounding heart asked. “I don’t know, I don’t know.” I whispered with anxiety. I don’t know and maybe I don’t want to know.

 

I had some longs and wrote some calls. Now it came the point that I need to have a new plan. I decided to open the indices up to have a careful look inside, hoping to see some gems as well as being ready to jump away from some scary worms. So I did.

 

Energy seems trying to stretch another leg up and I feel that we are ready for either direction. There are a few good stones in the ash of the financial fire. The flame is still dancing and the stones are still too hot, but I am not sure I can see them again when everything cools down. Most of the others look like shiny glass beads and all that might be just illusionary. So I still don’t know.

 

On one side, the inflation is pushing me little by little towards real assets, on the other I saw bear factors lurching in the dark wanting to bite me anytime. Sigh, it is not a good moment to be in. But hey! I know opportunities are ahead!

jsl

Commodity, oil, dollar, stock are all going up, why?

 

First of all, we didn't need more money, we just had a few more transactions which created money, some kind of credit that to be repayed by either company earings or whoever hold the asset in their hands in the last turn, actually.

 

First senario:  Economic recovery is near the corner.

Then I don't have to say anything further.

 

Second one:

Dollar didn't get stronger, other currencies got weaker. The gold up-swing supported this.

The stock market knows that commodities can't go much higher, thus tolerate any short term fluctuations. Looking ahead, any pull back on commodities will provide an equity relief.

Sentiments on commodities have turned negative, a few short squeeze are quite normal during this process.

jsl

bulls will fight back soon, let's see it is going to be for real.

xiaobailong

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-5-7 01:00 发表 Sentiments on commodities have turned negative, a few short squeeze are quite normal during this process.

这句话怎么理解啊？如果commodities的市场情绪是negative的，怎么会有short squeeze呢？

大泡泡

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-5-9 14:27 发表 bulls will fight back soon, let's see it is going to be for real.

感觉市场还是很牛呀， 应该杀牛了吧。

jsl

原帖由 xiaobailong 于 2008-5-9 15:02 发表 这句话怎么理解啊？如果commodities的市场情绪是negative的，怎么会有short squeeze呢？

如果不negative，怎么会有shorts.有了shorts,才有squeezes

xiaobailong

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-5-9 15:10 发表 如果不negative，怎么会有shorts.有了shorts,才有squeezes

原来如此，需要这么多步骤啊。

jsl

原帖由 xiaobailong 于 2008-5-9 15:56 发表 原来如此，需要这么多步骤啊。

还有呢，squeeze完了，可能还会疯牛撑一阵

jsl

替酷哥FA一下ETH

 

From google finance: “Ethan Allen Interiors Inc., through its wholly owned subsidiary, Ethan Allen Global, Inc., and Ethan Allen Global, Inc.’s subsidiaries is a manufacturer and retailer of home furnishings and accessories, offering a full complement of home decorating and design solutions. The operations are classified into two operating segments: wholesale and retail. The wholesale segment is involved in the development of the Ethan Allen brand, which encompasses the design, manufacture, domestic and offshore sourcing, sale and distribution of a range of home furnishings and accessories to a network of independently owned and Ethan Allen owned design centers, as well as related marketing and brand awareness efforts. The retail segment sells home furnishings and accessories to consumers through a network of Company owned design centers.”

 

The company had tried hard to maintain first quarter sales and that number dropped only 4.3% from same quarter last year. The net margin dropped nearly 50%. Even without further deterioration, the P/E is about 21-23. ETH had bought some shares back, cash level stays healthy. However, it seems that the company has no intention to scale down the production which will leave it vulnerable to a prolonged housing downturn. The bottom line is that ETH is not a bad company yet and the management had done a good job, though I would hope they had reduced capacity without wishful thinking. The company dodged the first blow, but the risk remains high. If you want to short it, it is probably OK since people still hesitate about whether they should dump it all. Don’t be too greedy, it is not a terrible company. At 20, there may be many buyers jump in.

 

jsl

粥馍鱼块：PPTEAM梦寐以求的诗词来了！七律《熊军不怕花街难》。好就叫个好！！！

 

牛群只怕远征南， 逃跑要在大跌前。
五波起伏藏细浪， 云里雾里不好玩。
金牛灌水银熊侃， 独木桥上心胆寒。
更爱北上千里外， 三波过后再数钱。

 

上个贴忘了加link,这补上

CoolMax的个股TA观察

[ 本帖最后由 jsl 于 2008-5-10 01:01 编辑 ]

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原帖由 jsl 于 2008-5-10 00:38 发表 粥馍鱼块：PPTEAM梦寐以求的诗词来了！七律《熊军不怕花街难》。好就叫个好！！！   牛群只怕远征南， 逃跑要在大跌前。 五波起伏藏细浪， 云里雾里不好玩。 金牛灌水银熊侃， 独木桥上心胆寒。 更爱北上千里 ...

 

这个好玩，我也来填

 

忆秦娥 - 熊市

    和金牛银熊，Jsl

 

油价烈，股市熊啸霜晨月。

霜晨月，环球米贵，美国纸贱。

 

熊市漫漫真如铁，

牛当迈步从头越，

从头越，波浪如海，阴线如血。

[ 本帖最后由 还在发呆 于 2008-5-10 02:36 编辑 ]

xiaobailong

赞！

jsl

骄阳烈 绿地黄花夏风惬

夏风惬 灵童戏耍 鸟鸣雀跃

 

细砂滩滩湾如月

碧浪叠叠白如雪

白如雪 银鱼出水 轻舟游曳