Chan study on spy (30 min bi)

littletiger

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formed 5min zone;
up 5min bi and 30min bi are not completed yet.

no divergency, and more up room. check 115.5 and 115 support.

littletiger

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no more short at least for 2 days. should buy dip cause it becomes 5min trending up.

light size shorting 3x bear ETF

SLD 100   FAZ Stock FAZ 57.03   ISLAND(USD) 10:43:10 CDT on Tue, 27 Sep 2011 new
  SLD 100   FAZ Stock FAZ 57.03   ISLAND(USD) 10:43:10 CDT on Tue, 27 Sep 2011 new
  BOT 200   FAZ Stock FAZ 56.33   ISLAND(USD) 10:15:41 CDT on Tue, 27 Sep 2011 new
  BOT 200   FAZ Stock FAZ 56.43   ISLAND(USD) 10:10:01 CDT on Tue, 27 Sep 2011 new
  SLD 100   FAZ Stock FAZ 56.48   ISLAND(USD) 10:05:30 CDT on Tue, 27 Sep 2011 new
  SLD 100   FAZ Stock FAZ 56.48   ISLAND(USD) 10:05:30 CDT on Tue, 27 Sep 2011 new
  BOT 200   FAZ Stock FAZ 56.31   ISLAND(USD) 10:03:14 CDT on Tue, 27 Sep 2011 new
  SLD 100   FAZ Stock FAZ 56.43   ISLAND(USD) 10:02:06 CDT on Tue, 27 Sep 2011 new
  SLD 100   FAZ Stock FAZ 56.43   ISLAND(USD) 10:02:06 CDT on Tue, 27 Sep 2011 new
  BOT 123   FAZ Stock FAZ 56.18   ISLAND(USD) 09:59:47 CDT on Tue, 27 Sep 2011 new
  BOT 43   FAZ Stock FAZ 56.18   ISLAND(USD) 09:59:44 CDT on Tue, 27 Sep 2011 new
  BOT 34   FAZ Stock FAZ 56.18   ISLAND(USD) 09:59:44 CDT on Tue, 27 Sep 2011 new
  SLD 200   FAZ Stock FAZ 56.38   ISLAND(USD) 09:59:04 CDT on Tue, 27 Sep 2011 new
  BOT 200   FAZ Stock FAZ 56.88   ISLAND(USD) 08:50:10 CDT on Tue, 27 Sep 2011 new
  SLD 200   FAZ Stock FAZ 57.03   ISLAND(USD) 08:48:05 CDT on Tue, 27 Sep 2011 new

littletiger

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FAZ is not a good short; got caught in the last drop.

a 5min bi zone (eq. to 1min zone) is formed and then formed divergency; then drop;
the 30min up BI is completed;  5min down bi starts;

check range 117-118.6 (last 5min bi zone)

silicon_beaver

Tuesday?
This morning opened a FAZ long position, hold overnight.

littletiger

littletiger 发表于 2011-9-27 21:23
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FAZ is not a good short; got caught in the last drop.

SLD 1   ES Futures DEC11 ESZ1 1,177.25   GLOBEX(USD) 08:57:00 CDT on Wed, 28 Sep 2011 new
BOT 1   ES Futures DEC11 ESZ1 1,175.50   GLOBEX(USD) 09:00:22 CDT on Wed, 28 Sep 2011 new


short around SPY 118.5 but covered quickly because the drop is not strong. wait and see.


10:30 am, it drops quickly after i covered. and SPY Range 117.04 - 118.49; as predicted yesterday.


light size long by shorting TZA; will cover soon at resistance:

SLD 200   TZA Stock TZA 47.40   BATS(USD) 10:46:38 CDT on Wed, 28 Sep 2011 new
SLD 200   TZA Stock TZA 47.88   ISLAND(USD) 09:33:16 CDT on Wed, 28 Sep 2011 new

littletiger

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update on 9/29.
this down 5min bi is a trend. it may be completed (slightly positive divergency). more up tomorrow

overall, it is forming big zone. expecting more fluctuation around.

littletiger

littletiger 发表于 2011-9-29 21:12
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update on 9/29.

on 9/29, i said the 5min down trend may be completed. actually, no obvious positive divengency.

on 9/30, the gap-down, and weak rally up can not make a new high; indicating more down.
in the afternoon, it forms a 1min down trend. no obvious positive divengency yet.

overall, 5min down trend is close to an end. the big picture is, it has formed TWO 5min zones; it may form a third one.

littletiger

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prediction of SPY for the rest of 2011;

DAILY plot (nothing to do with CHAN; it based on the trendline; macd; and resistance line)

basically, middle term bottom around OCT. then rally in early NOV; then down in middle NOV to form a 2nd buy point;
in the end, there will be a rally into year end around 125? (depending on the low point of OCT)

littletiger

The crisis-management gauntlet continues with an Oct. 9 meeting of Sarkozy with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, an Oct. 13 euro-area decision on Greece’s next installment, G-20 finance ministers meeting in Paris on Oct. 14-15, and an Oct. 17-18 European Union summit in Brussels. The G-20 summit is Nov. 3-4 in Cannes, France.

littletiger

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down trend, no positive divergency yet.
more down tomo.

expected to form another 5min zone around here. then more down in next 3-5 days.
yellow box is 1min zone, the red one is 5min zone.

littletiger

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intraday update on 10/04;
today
1.IWM outperform SPY
2. PCLN, AMZN, APPL etc drop more than SPY
3. 40 min before close, ALLL red day (USD, bond, stock, gld)


is it a bottoming sign?

littletiger

littletiger 发表于 2011-10-3 20:38
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down trend, no positive divergency yet.

gap down in the morning.

then rally to form a 5min zone by "kuo zhan" into noon time; then drop starting noon

littletiger

littletiger 发表于 2011-10-4 15:16
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intraday update on 10/04;

haha... right on time.

littletiger

littletiger 发表于 2011-10-4 15:19
gap down in the morning.

then rally to form a 5min zone by "kuo zhan" into noon time; then dro ...

more up ahead. need a zone, then more rally before looking for negative divergency.
support:
IWM 62.1
TNA 30.1
sso 36.1
buy dip above support

littletiger

10/4
SPY



IWM


IWM 5min positive divergency and 1min positive divergency in the early morning dip
SPY has only 1min positive divergency, xiao zhuan DA

then negative divergency then positive divergency then rally in late afternoon.

littletiger

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5min negative divergency.

tomorrow
1. pan zhen (more likely)
or
2. reverse to down

resistance around 114.7-115

support $112.5-113.5

littletiger

littletiger 发表于 2011-10-5 22:45
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5min negative divergency.

morning: drop from 114.7 to 113.5 then rally up....

imtigerking

this is a very nice post. I didn't notice you are studying chan for spy.

littletiger

littletiger 发表于 2011-10-6 10:17
morning: drop from 114.7 to 113.5 then rally up....

5min and 30min view



takeaway: buy dip is still ok. because a up trend will not be completed without  divergency

more up ahead.

littletiger

littletiger 发表于 2011-10-6 10:17
morning: drop from 114.7 to 113.5 then rally up....

5min and 30min view



takeaway: the price is right under the trendline.

buy dip is still ok. because a up trend will not be completed without negative divergency
trendline will be broken. then wait for backtesting of trendline ......

tomo more up ahead. support 115-116