06/29/2010 白天灌水

Whigs

*U.S. HOUSE APPROVES EXTENDING HOMEBUYER TAX CREDIT DEADLINE
lite1067 发表于 2010-6-29 15:57

    This is only for those have signed contracts but failed to go through on time, not for new purchase.
So, no help.

Whigs

知道为什么牛牛这么衰？
因为斗牛士表现很精彩！

Go Spain!

ypm968

回复  ypm968

Captain, may I ask what you think about GLD?
a rising wedge or ascending triangle?
windy 发表于 2010-6-29 11:22

    Looks like a rising wedge. I am not sure. I will sell if gld drops below channel support line.

yingying

.
zeebra 发表于 2010-6-29 15:57

You are one of the best here!

windy

回复 703# ypm968

thanks!

alex68

Market also speculates that Fed will offer another USD swap line for 3 months maturity for european banks. Basically,  I don't believe  that European banks need it...

The banks in EURO zone that need the liquidity badly are mostly Spanish banks, more specificly small Spanish banks.  Why do they need USD? Why?

During Lehman crisis in 2008, 500B USD flew back to USA using FED USD SWAP lines with central banks. Some study shows the 500B USD was actually used from American financial institutions.

xiaochong

你能确定吗？
ypm968 发表于 2010-6-29 16:11

    有句话叫什么来着，强弩之末不能穿缟素也。今天下跌了这么多，大盘超卖，最后在捅一下，十有八九是收long stop，明天应该会有反弹。不过万事都不能100%哈

songjiang

Looks like a rising wedge. I am not sure. I will sell if gld drops below channel support l ...
ypm968 发表于 2010-6-29 16:32

老大这头像比窟窿头酷多啦。不过照片的更精神。
换成刮了胡子的咋样？

ranchgirl

Looks like a rising wedge. I am not sure. I will sell if gld drops below channel support l ...
ypm968 发表于 2010-6-29 16:32

GDX [51.98 -1.42 -2.66% 51.65-52.86 34.05-55.40] Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF

I bought some GDX like gold mutual fund these 2 days, don't know good or bad?

Captain, how do you think?

ranchgirl

    cut loss?
    usamonkey 发表于 2010-6-29 10:50




    yes. I did
ypm968 发表于 2010-6-29 15:52

I did not cut loss since I only bought very little IWM and IVV, instead, I added a little more IVV.

BTW, I trade IWM/IVV for commission free in Fidelity, that was why I can afford to buy very little for learning purposes.

nctree

总结今天就是五个字：

嗝儿屁着凉！

Diver

Captain, where did you cut loss? @SPX=1040? Thanks.

yes. I did
ypm968 发表于 2010-6-29 15:52

ypm968

Captain, where did you cut loss? @SPX=1040? Thanks.
Diver 发表于 2010-6-29 12:13

    yes 1040

ypm968

有句话叫什么来着，强弩之末不能穿缟素也。今天下跌了这么多，大盘超卖，最后在捅一下，十有八九 ...
xiaochong 发表于 2010-6-29 11:52

    Tomorrow's weekly claims, Friday's NFP, we won't have a sustainable rally before that.

Diver

Thanks Captain for your instant reply.

Now that SPX 1040 has been broken, even though it was only intraday, I believe it will soon close below 1040 and resume downtrend. Market will inevitably crush. What do you think?

yes 1040
ypm968 发表于 2010-6-29 17:19

Diver

It seems we have no more good data recently. And even worse, as I heard today, even though there is good data coming out, the market will still keep heading down now, unless US Government provides a new economy stimulas plan, as people are now overwhelmingly pessimistic.

Tomorrow's weekly claims, Friday's NFP, we won't have a sustainable rally before that.
ypm968 发表于 2010-6-29 17:25

90ufo

Thanks Captain for your instant reply.

Now that SPX 1040 has been broken, even though it was only ...
Diver 发表于 2010-6-29 17:26

COBRA chart 6.4.1a extreme low $NYADV, almost guarantees a lower close ahead.  Cobra also said "it's very common to see a big up day the next day though".

tomorrow is ADP data.  Thursday is jobless claim, friday NFP.

alex68

Surprise, surprise, Euro zone banks seem not to need liquid funding so badly at all. But MMs can still abuse and exagerate the problem of Spanish banking system on purpose...

Only 131B 1 year debt was rolled over to 3 months debt, much less than the estimates from banks.

Deutsche Bank Roll-over estimate: 221bn Good: less than 150bn Bad: more than 300bn
Goldman Sachs:Roll-over estimate: 150-200bn Bad: More than 300bn
RBS: Roll-over estimate: Over 250bn
IFR Capital Markets: Roll-over estimate: Max 220bn Bad: More than 300bn.
UniCredit:  Good: About 240-250bn Bad: More than 400bn
Barclays Capital: Roll-over estimate: 250-300bn  Good: Less than 250bn Bad: More than 300bn

No 3 months USD swap between FED and  ECB, but 7 days USD swap.

TED spread is dropping a lot today.