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发表于 2011-6-7 03:25 PM
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本帖最后由 Forevergreen 于 2011-6-7 16:25 编辑
Although it is moving in the right direction, the economy is still
producing at levels well below its potential; consequently, accommodative
monetary policies are still needed. Until we see a sustained period of stronger
job creation, we cannot consider the recovery to be truly established. At the
same time, the longer-run health of the economy requires that the Federal
Reserve be vigilant in preserving its hard-won credibility for maintaining
price stability. As I have explained, most FOMC participants currently see the
recent increase in inflation as transitory and expect inflation to remain
subdued in the medium term. Should that forecast prove wrong, however, and
particularly if signs were to emerge that inflation was becoming more broadly
based or that longer-term inflation expectations were becoming less well
anchored, the Committee would respond as necessary. Under all circumstances,
our policy actions will be guided by the objectives of supporting the recovery
in output and employment while helping ensure that inflation, over time, is at
levels consistent with the Federal Reserve's mandate."
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NOTES:
1 Through April, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation over the
previous six months was 3.6 percent at an annual rate; excluding gasoline,
inflation over that period was 2 percent. Over a 12-month span, inflation
through April was 2.2 percent; excluding gasoline, it was 1.2 percent.
2 In the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, the
median reading on expected inflation over the next 5 to 10 years was 2.9
percent in May after having averaged 2.8 percent in 2010. In the Survey of
Professional Forecasters (SPF) compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of
Philadelphia, the median projection for PCE inflation over the next 10 years
was 2.3 percent in May, up from the 2.1 percent average reading last year. The
equivalent SPF projection for CPI inflation was 2.4 percent, versus 2.3 percent
in 2010. The 5-year forward measure of inflation compensation derived from TIPS
stood at about 2-3/4 percent in May, down noticeably from the levels observed
toward the end of 2010.
3 The GDP data cited here are from the International Monetary Fund's World
Economic Outlook database. The difference between the advanced and emerging
market economies is also evident in the statistics on industrial production,
which is perhaps more directly relevant to the demand for commodities.
According to the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, from
March 2009 to March 2010, industrial production rose 26 percent in the emerging
market economies and 11 percent in the advanced economies.
4 A portion of commodity use in the emerging market economies serves as inputs
to the production of exports, some of which are ultimately consumed in advanced
economies.
5 As natural gas is difficult to transport overseas, the increased supplies of
natural gas in North America have not translated into significantly lower
prices abroad. In the first quarter of 2011, natural gas prices in the United
States were less than half of those in Germany.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2011-6-7 03:21 PM
