Why I think market hit capitulation level on Friday

风行过 · 发表于 2016-1-11 04:18 PM

you guys are good. Sorry I missed the thread entirely today! :(

keep up the good work.

我想跑 · 发表于 2016-1-11 04:49 PM

$NYMO还没交下轨，量不足，我有点怀疑还没到底，难道需要等到OE day有量的时候才真正到底？

wreckbeach · 发表于 2016-1-11 09:52 PM

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-1-11 02:27 PM
I'm now 99% sure that today is the reversal day............. That's just my opinion

I agree completely. Today is the reversal day. Already bottomed this wave of selling off. Period.

wreckbeach · 发表于 2016-1-11 09:53 PM

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-1-10 05:21 PM
Thanks wreckbeach and I'm really appreciated your inputs on my threads. I took a little bit of ti ...

多谢盛情！

I would like to discuss more with you。

wreckbeach · 发表于 2016-1-11 10:07 PM

wreckbeach 发表于 2016-1-10 03:59 PM
我觉得周五的下跌动能有所衰减，而不是增强。这一波下跌是迷你版的去年八月份下跌，或者说是放大版的去年十 ...

有人问：为什么说“下跌动能有所衰减”？

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答：

按收盘价计算，上周五的跌幅比上周四小。今天则更是反转，跌幅是负的（收盘上涨）。所以说下跌动能衰竭中。

去年八月份那一波下跌，每天的跌幅比前一天越来越大。那时候是下跌动能中。

看趋势动能，要看收盘价，而不是看最高点到最低点的距离。

wreckbeach · 发表于 2016-1-11 10:10 PM

周末，许多人恐慌，认为今天会大幅度低开，象去年八月二十四日那样。我在别处分析告诉大家，今天高开还是低开还不一定呐，因为我见到：上周五收盘后，SPY继续大跌，但是VOO和 IVV却都反而上涨了。说明smart money大量抄底，他们认为现在的价钱是便宜货。

我说了，今天只要不是低开，而是高开，那么就说明到底了，因为守住了我画的图中那根支撑线。

今天早上，我告诉大家，真是高开了，说明恐慌已经衰竭了，因为摆脱了中国A股继续大跌-5%的影响。盘中见下穿支撑线，今天会收长针探底，大胆抄底。我自己买回了。

cfayahoo · 发表于 2016-1-12 05:30 AM

wreckbeach 发表于 2016-1-11 10:10 PM
周末，许多人恐慌，认为今天会大幅度低开，象去年八月二十四日那样。我在别处分析告诉大家，今天高开还是低 ...

Lucky and wreck each, What is target for this bounce? If there is one

luckystar2006 · 发表于 2016-1-12 10:26 AM

One of my coupons just got expired this morning because it was used.

luckystar2006 · 发表于 2016-1-12 10:32 AM

cfayahoo 发表于 2016-1-12 05:30 AM
Lucky and wreck each, What is target for this bounce? If there is one

Sorry my friend, I've no idea. I'll hold (especially with my SPXL position) until my early SELL short-term signals kick in.

superxy · 发表于 2016-1-12 10:34 AM

这次反弹的目标？要出的时候，说一声呀。

luckystar2006 · 发表于 2016-1-12 11:50 AM

I can see a lot of panics from Bulls, but it's an opportunity for me to load in CALLs.

luckystar2006 · 发表于 2016-1-12 11:55 AM

May the bull force be with me

luckystar2006 · 发表于 2016-1-12 12:00 PM

I know it's silly but I'm superstitious that recently, when I write on here that I buy calls/puts, market tends to go opposite. Maybe it's time for me to stop doing that???

风行过 · 发表于 2016-1-12 12:01 PM

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-1-12 11:55 AM
May the bull force be with me

不能再double down 了。明天一低开就都关进去了。要加多仓，还是等明天看吧。不然就算了。

may the bull force be with you !

superxy · 发表于 2016-1-12 12:23 PM

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-1-12 12:00 PM
I know it's silly but I'm superstitious that recently, when I write on here that I buy calls/puts, m ...

要继续呀……下次就是正的了……

long10 · 发表于 2016-1-12 12:43 PM

本帖最后由 long10 于 2016-1-12 12:45 PM 编辑

Luckystar，may I ask what the name of the indicator in your sc1.png chart is? I mean the one on the top of the chart. Thanks a lot.

ysc · 发表于 2016-1-12 04:11 PM

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-1-12 11:00 AM
I know it's silly but I'm superstitious that recently, when I write on here that I buy calls/puts, m ...

seriously? come on.

nstar · 发表于 2016-1-12 05:52 PM

Hhi, luckystar, thanks for sharing. Just wonder if you had run backtest with 2007- 2009 data? How accurate is it in a bear market?

wreckbeach · 发表于 2016-1-12 05:59 PM

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-1-12 12:00 PM
I know it's silly but I'm superstitious that recently, when I write on here that I buy calls/puts, m ...

how do you think of tomorrow?

thanks.

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[灌水] Why I think market hit capitulation level on Friday

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