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发表于 2013-8-2 01:59 PM
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wolfdoctor 发表于 2013-8-2 02:01 AM 
本来市场已经开始消化taper，并判断为谨慎利好。但昨天Fed让市场稍感意外，所以下午钱又往金、债里跑，股市 ...
我不看好QE对美国经济的正面影响，所以观点和comments有Bias. 欢迎指正。
股市对tapering不会太喜欢，因为：
FA side: Now Bulls argue Stock is fair valued because Divident Yield is higher than Bond Yield. If Bond Yield increases, dividend yield needs to match up in order for bulls to make the same argument . This can be done through either dropping stock price or increasing dividend. Apple can issue debt to pay dividends. How many firms can do the same thing if they have not done it already and want to do it when rate increases?
Inreasing rates increase the borrowing cost of consumers and business. Use mortgage as an example, increased rates will reduce how much people can borrow, which in term dampen the housing prices. So the effect of higher rates on retail and commercial banking business is unclear. You may see the NIM is higher but your volume is down.
TA side: increasing rates increase the cost of speculation on margin.
I also doubt you will see mass of money moves from money market fund, bond funds to stocks. I can elaborate if people want to have a discussion on it. But my expectation will be people will sell bonds when rate starts moving (just look how quickly 10y rate moved from 1.6 to 2.6% and this probably get Fed nervous so has to change tones on tapering recently) and holds cash to buy bonds later.
Last thing I want to say is if companies can not report better revene/sales next quarter, I don't think I want to buy dip. |
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