捷思老大每日更新好久没有发了

捷思 · 发表于 2013-8-26 10:13 PM

milan1126 发表于 2013-8-26 05:52 PM
Yes, now the entire picture is not very clear just like the QE tapering fundamentals. I would rath ...

328 · 发表于 2013-8-27 12:29 PM

很久没玩了,刚在163.75买了spy,stop@163.45，看看运气如何。

补充内容 (2013-8-27 01:18 PM):
被踢出来了,再试一次, try to buy at 163.57, stop at 163.25

补充内容 (2013-8-27 02:28 PM):
退出来了,看来要等大点的级别再弄.

补充内容 (2013-8-27 03:03 PM):
基本上是不亏不赚,问题出在,小级别进去,想着大级别卖点.

bucks · 发表于 2013-8-27 03:57 PM

328 发表于 2013-8-27 11:29 AM
很久没玩了,刚在163.75买了spy,，看看运气如何。

补充内容 (2013-8-27 01:18 PM):

今天来势凶猛，看能不能形成大级别一买了。

328 · 发表于 2013-8-27 04:42 PM

bucks 发表于 2013-8-27 03:57 PM
今天来势凶猛，看能不能形成大级别一买了。

其实我两次进的都还可以，愣是没有卖出去，尤其第二次的高点163.9是很规矩的（MHP），是心理状态不好，总想着大一级别的反弹。所以说，小级别不好做，要在比较小的范围内，买卖两次都正确。当然，今天做空，就不存在这问题。

个人感觉，由于昨天下午3：15到今天的走势太快，所以前几天进去的很难逃出，所以需要时间消化。

另外，总是有这种跳空，让人很难分析走势。

lin999 · 发表于 2013-8-27 07:00 PM

逆势操作

捷思 · 发表于 2013-8-29 08:52 AM

austinjoe · 发表于 2013-8-29 11:26 PM

本帖最后由 austinjoe 于 2013-8-29 10:32 PM 编辑

捷思发表于 2013-8-29 07:52 AM

Based on 多义性, it's better to treat the spx down run from 1708 is still 5F 趋势. 1st 5F中枢 is around spy 169, the 2nd 5F中枢 is around spy 165 and it's still swing around the 2nd 5F中枢, IMHO.

milan1126 · 发表于 2013-8-30 09:40 AM

austinjoe 发表于 2013-8-29 11:26 PM
Based on 多义性, it's better to treat the spx down run from 1708 is still 5F 趋势. 1st 5F中枢 is ...

Agree, the drop from 1708 to right now is still 5F 趋势.But given one more 1-min push up, the 5F中枢 at around 165 will expand to a 30F中枢.

捷思 · 发表于 2013-9-3 08:53 AM

近似的把7-10看成趋势可能也行。
spy 2013 0902 d.gif

捷思 · 发表于 2013-9-3 09:08 AM

本帖最后由捷思于 2013-9-3 06:36 AM 编辑

spy 2013 0903 1m.gif

austinjoe · 发表于 2013-9-3 01:00 PM

本帖最后由 austinjoe 于 2013-9-3 12:07 PM 编辑

捷思发表于 2013-9-3 07:53 AM
近似的把7-10看成趋势可能也行。

"把7-10看成趋势" is not valid now as on your SPY 30min chart, as milan1126 said, a 30F中枢 is formed, spy 164 -- 165.6. Let's see it's 3rd buy or sell point show up first.

austinjoe · 发表于 2013-9-3 01:04 PM

milan1126 发表于 2013-8-30 08:40 AM
Agree, the drop from 1708 to right now is still 5F 趋势.But given one more 1-min push up, the 5F中 ...

Good point. Now it's 30F中枢震荡 IMO. Watch spy 164 -- 165.6 to see if 3rd buy or sell show up.

捷思 · 发表于 2013-9-3 02:02 PM

本帖最后由捷思于 2013-9-3 11:05 AM 编辑

austinjoe 发表于 2013-9-3 10:00 AM
"把7-10看成趋势" is not valid now as on your SPY 30min chart, as milan1126 said, a 30F中枢 is fo ...

8/2- 8/28的下跌是日线一笔，一般对应5分级别走势。因此可以近似看成趋势。

看成趋势后就容易把握笔结束产生的1买。

严格划分是3个5分级别走势的连接。

补充内容 (2013-9-3 01:28 PM):
如果68低于65，7-10就是标准的5分趋势。

austinjoe · 发表于 2013-9-3 08:37 PM

本帖最后由 austinjoe 于 2013-9-3 08:03 PM 编辑

捷思发表于 2013-9-3 01:02 PM
8/2- 8/28的下跌是日线一笔，一般对应5分级别走势。因此可以近似看成趋势。

看成趋势后就容易把握笔 ...

I guess on your 30min chart, 64-65-66-67-68-69-70-71-72 are 1F级别走势 that are build from 1min chart. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

The 2nd 5F中枢 has not be set to done by neither 3rd buy nor 3rd sell, so it's still 中枢震荡 till end of last Friday. However, this morning gap up is high than 71 (spx 1646) hence a new 30F中枢 is formed today.

Again, using the 多义性, your 30 min chart red text comments on 5F level 7-8 vs 9-10 and 9-10 internal 1F level comparing makes perfect sense. The only problem is that today's morning gap up to make the 10 local low hard to catch / play, since last Friday spx only formed 1F中枢 around 1630-1635, 71-72 could not be set to down by end of last Friday. If big gap down today, then 71-72 could be >> 69-70 on 1F level and 9-10 could be stronger than 8-9 on 5F level.