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楼主: greenback

Forex/Futures ST for Week 4/15-4/19

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-15 01:07 PM | 显示全部楼层


Well, bears are stronger this time. If the second S/R level is broken decisive, we should close our risk assets in the portfolio.
US SPX 500 Futures(5 Hours)20130415100744.png
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-15 01:10 PM | 显示全部楼层
NIKKEI is still hanging on above our stop loss ...
Japan 225(5 Hours)20130415101145.png
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-15 01:13 PM | 显示全部楼层
US 10yr is still hesitating ...
US 10 YR T-Note(5 Hours)20130415101450.png
US 10 YR T-Note(Daily)20130415101435.png
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-15 01:16 PM | 显示全部楼层
The EURO BUND is posed to break out ... Looks like EURO zone is still in deep shit ...
Euro Bund(5 Hours)20130415101725.png
Euro Bund(Daily)20130415101706.png
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-15 01:20 PM | 显示全部楼层
JGB might have a short-term rebound next, but the trend is further down ...
Looks like Japanese investors are still conservative, i.e. refusing to sell their JGB bonds. I guess the huge decline in JPY is simply too great to pass. I'm still waiting for the day for a avalanche in JPY to come sometime this year.
Japan Govt. Bond(5 Hours)20130415101940.png
Japan Govt. Bond(Daily)20130415101915.png
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-15 01:58 PM | 显示全部楼层
Don't know why DAX is holding so well???
DAX(15 Minutes)20130415105945.png
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-15 02:00 PM | 显示全部楼层
1540 next stop??? The ma20 in the daily chart doesn't look like it can hold ...
SPX 500(Daily)20130415110055.png
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-15 02:00 PM | 显示全部楼层
The second line is broken ...
SPX 500(15 Minutes)20130415110202.png
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-15 02:09 PM | 显示全部楼层
NIKKEI is also stopped out with a gain ... let's wait for the next long entry to go in again ...
Japan 225(5 Hours)20130415110949.png
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-15 02:10 PM | 显示全部楼层
This chart shows the importance of having a stop loss, in USD/JPY ...
USDJPY(5 Hours)20130415111131.png
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-15 02:13 PM | 显示全部楼层
Next S/R level somewhere around 1540 ...
SPX 500(Daily)20130415111350.png
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-15 02:19 PM | 显示全部楼层
SPX has retraced 61.8% ... a short-term rebound is coming soon ... then another leg down.
SPX 500(5 Hours)20130415112046.png
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-15 02:22 PM | 显示全部楼层
This chart shows why it is important to wait for a break out before committing a trade.
USDJPY(15 Minutes)20130415112256.png
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发表于 2013-4-15 02:23 PM | 显示全部楼层
ES日线图这么大的一个bear bar,应该是2条腿????现在还不宜buy dip?

准备好小分队,看看明天情况再定,今天不buy dip了
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-15 02:27 PM | 显示全部楼层
azure4068 发表于 2013-4-15 10:23 AM
ES日线图这么大的一个bear bar,应该是2条腿????现在还不宜buy dip?

准备好小分队,看看明天情况再定 ...

In general, that's the case. Let's see whether this time it's different. There should be an action to make a lower high for us ST traders to start shorting or completely close our longs ...
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-15 02:50 PM | 显示全部楼层
So indeed, here is a bounce ... let's see where it'll land first.
SPX 500(15 Minutes)20130415114814.png
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-15 02:57 PM | 显示全部楼层
Rejected by 50% ... a weak sign ... more down ahead.
SPX 500(15 Minutes)20130415115830.png
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-15 03:52 PM | 显示全部楼层
I think SPX is a bit too oversold. I'd close my short here to wait and see ...
The last few hour bars look like in some panic mode. You can say it's in the opposite of the "bump and run" up leg ...
SPX 500(Hourly)20130415125235.png
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-15 05:58 PM | 显示全部楼层
Let's recap today's price actions ...

First on indices ...
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-15 06:00 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 greenback 于 2013-4-15 02:03 PM 编辑

Bloody day! The S/R band is right below. MM moves very fast! There were chatting that this was in part due to the Boston explosion that killed a few players ... Don't know ...

It's clearly oversold, and don't know whether the next move is consolidation or a rebound. Either way, oversold can be relieved.

US SPX 500 Futures(5 Hours)20130415145859.png
US SPX 500 Futures(Daily)20130415145850.png
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