2012-06-W4

Diffusion

好久不见，冒个泡

snowrider

Diffusion 发表于 2012-6-25 15:07
好久不见，冒个泡

Diffusion - 歡迎度假歸來!  你度假的這段時間市場上沖下洗把偶修理慘了

Diffusion

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-25 15:10
Diffusion - 歡迎度假歸來!  你度假的這段時間市場上沖下洗把偶修理慘了

我觉得现在是一波已平，一波未起。市场没有方向。追涨杀跌可能有点过时了，低买高卖大概比较合适。

我放了两周假，不用烦心版面俗务，感觉不错。其实偶尔放松放松也挺好。

时时是好时

趋势跟踪最怕就是市场那种“恰到好处”的波动。最近好像就是这种情况，5%到8%的幅度来回波动。

snowrider

We sold 1/2 SPY (10%-06/11, 2.5%-06/12) at today's MOO price with trivial profit.
We sold 1/2 EEM (12.5%-06/15) at today's MOO price with 4% loss of the purchase price.
We sold TQQQ (06/11) right after the market opened with 2% loss of the purchase price.
We sold FAS (06/12) right after the market opened with 7% profit of the purchase price.
We sold TNA (06/19) right after the market opened with 6% loss of the purchase price.
The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:

Long Term - Big troop dollar amount allocation:
- TLT 25% (10%-04/10, 15%-05/01)
- SPY 12.5% (12.5%-06/12)
- EEM 12.5% (06/15)
- Cash 50%

Medium Term - Small troop stock holding:  None

The selling pressue came to a temporary pause this afternoon after a 5-wave down movement completed (counted from 06/19).  Now we have changed the grey line wave count as the preferred count.  A rebound is expected soon with that scenario.

Wave count (based on the grey line scenario):
06/04/2012's low = [A]
06/19/2012's high = [B]
Now we are in the middle of [C]
We probably just finished [C].I today, which means a rebound of [C].II could be seen soon.
(Note that this scenario will become invalid if the market shows a 5-wave up movement.)

君遥

雪大辛苦了

君遥

老大的无私付出是有目共睹的。也是大家都敬重的原因!!!!!!!!!!!

cat2011

Thank you very much for your hard work. I really appreciate it.

luckystar

回复 snowrider 的帖子

Snowrider:

From 6/19 high to today's low, SPY erased slightly less than 61.8% of previous up-run. So, we still could be in the up wave from 6/4 low. If it goes further down from here, then it is most likely the correction wave C. We are in the critical point right now.

daveyhorl99

thomast

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-25 10:34
不好意思 ... 偶這兩天一直在思考這個問題 ... 是否這個還要再繼續!?  雖然偶有即時貼出 ... 但是偶跑掉了 ...

You are a very responsible person. Some people post their entry, but very few post their exit, let alone at real time, especially a losing trade.

Like your posts and wanted to learn from you about real-time trade. Thanks so much.

BTW, I for one, respect your decision and hope you wouldn't have much pressure when making trading decision because of this real-time posting.

snowrider

luckystar 发表于 2012-6-25 20:37
回复 snowrider 的帖子

Snowrider:

From 6/19 high to today's low, SPY erased slightly less than 61.8% of previous up-run. So, we still could be in the up wave from 6/4 low. If it goes further down from here, then it is most likely the correction wave C. We are in the critical point right now.

luckystar - Yes, it is!  That was why I sold only 1/2 of stock holding in my big troop and kept the other half.  Yes, it is still possible to go up from here!  If we see a 5-wave up movement from here, I will restart the accumulation.

vanbj

Thanks!

Irene2011

Thanks Snowrider, your hard work is greatly appreciated.

snowrider

If EEM falls below 06/04/2012's low, I will sell all remaining EEM.
If TLT falls below 06/20/2012's low, I will sell 1/2 of remaiing TLT.

时时是好时

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-26 09:33
If EEM falls below 06/04/2012's low, I will sell all remaining EEM.
If TLT falls below 06/20/2012's ...

That will be almost all cash in hand...  I don't think both will fall below the line.

cat2011

In that case, the market has no chance for wave 5 move.

snowrider

时时是好时 发表于 2012-6-26 09:31
That will be almost all cash in hand...  I don't think both will fall below the line.  ...

时时是好时 - 偶從來沒去注意 但是剛剛逛了逛發現竟然HT有個 "菩提树下" 版 ...

bucks

the mkt may have been bottomed for short-term. Wait until close to make the final call

snowrider

bucks 发表于 2012-6-26 11:58
the mkt may have been bottomed for short-term. Wait until close to make the final call

Yes, I agree with you.  I guess that wave [C].II rebound is underway.