2012-06-W2

snowrider

时时是好时 发表于 2012-6-11 15:04
噢，又没有跟上。。。可惜了！！

塞翁 ... 焉知非福或禍 ... 偶本來想明天再進的  結果看它最後殺盤偶就一陣狂喜 ... 就進了

时时是好时

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-11 16:08
塞翁 ... 焉知非福或禍 ... 偶本來想明天再進的  結果看它最後殺盤偶就一陣狂喜 ... 就進了

“一阵狂喜”，，，我什么时候能有这种感觉！？

最后两分钟，我一直在犹豫，多，，空，，多，，空，，，，再一看，收盘了。。。

busted

small position for UPRO after hour for risky bet...

Irene2011

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-11 13:08
塞翁 ... 焉知非福或禍 ... 偶本來想明天再進的  結果看它最後殺盤偶就一陣狂喜 ... 就進了

雪骑老大,  一直有看老大的精彩评述。本人是新手，从这里学到了很多。看老大买了spy，估计能到什么点位？
谢谢！

snowrider

We sold SPXU that was bought last Friday with 2%+ loss of purchase price.  We also bot TQQQ and SPY today.  The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:

Long Term - Big troop dolloar amount allocation: TLT 75%, SPY 10%, cash 15%
Medium Term - Small troop stock holding: TQQQ

The market has been following the scenario-1 (see last week's My Trade comments) with a brief touch of 1335 and then a sharp reversal.  If the scenario-1 is the one that the market is going to take, wave-1 up has finished, and wave-2 is underway.  This wave-2 pullback is going to form the right shoulder bottom of the Inverse Head and Shoulders (left shoulder - 05/18, head - 06/04), so it is the good opportunity to establish long position in the end of wave-2.  (Note that this scenario will be invalid if the market falls below the head).

snowrider

Irene2011 发表于 2012-6-11 15:36
雪骑老大,  一直有看老大的精彩评述。本人是新手，从这里学到了很多。看老大买了spy，估计能到什么点位？ ...

Irene - 謝謝!  請看波圖灰線!

Irene2011

1380, thanks.

ethanlinear

两阴夹一阳?

释义：两阴夹一阳的K线组合就是一个阳线夹在两根阴线中间，这常是一个下跌途中的形态。表示股价下跌，中间遇到小阳线的抵抗，但还是挡不住卖方的力量，股价将继续走下跌行情。



分析：与两阳夹一阴多方炮相反，两阴夹一阳则是卖出信号，又称“空头炮”。它反应市场空方占优，多方且战且退，情况不容乐观。所以，投资者此时必须离场，止盈或止损。



特点：一般而言，两阴夹一阳多出现在市场的顶部，特别是高位头部，准确率较高。为什么呢？股价持续攀升之后，到达一定高位。某一日股价高开低走，日K线收出一根带量的中、大阴线，显示获利盘抛压开始加重，或盘中主力已开始减磅离场。次日股价没有延续跌势，反而低开高走，收出一根中小阳线，似乎多头又开始反扑，给人一种升势未尽的错觉。然而细心的投资者会发现，当日成交量却比前日下跌时成交量明显萎缩，说明此日的阳线带有欺骗性，做多意愿不强。接下来的一个交易日股价再次高开低走，大量获利盘汹涌而出，成交量再次放大，充分说明多方能量已完全消耗，空方彻底控制了大局，一轮下跌趋势已基本确立。所以当股价在相对高位，日K线组合形“两阴夹一阳”时，通常会成为一个明确的头部形态。如果两条阴线的成交量大于阳线的成交量，则有效性极高，投资者应坚决卖出。



要点：一、两条阴线实体较长，通常都大于阳线实体长度。二、两条阴线伴随的成交量明显大于阳线时的成交量。三、股价已攀升到一定高位。

NZX

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-11 16:08
塞翁 ... 焉知非福或禍 ... 偶本來想明天再進的  結果看它最後殺盤偶就一陣狂喜 ... 就進了

应该还有更低的价位。

blessed

where is 两阴夹一阳？ I do not see it on daily chart, which stock has this?

blessed

雪骑老大， 我记得你有一张图，可是找不到，能不能给个链接？

328

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-11 16:37
We sold SPXU that was bought last Friday with 2%+ loss of purchase price.  We also bot TQQQ and SPY  ...

雪老大，

操作确实是很费心的，特别是在哪里stop loss，在哪里获利了结。如果是Long term的话更是如此，因为stop loss会较大。
你最近也一直在写操作和hedge的话题，读来收益匪浅。

今天看你long term 是 75%TLT，10%SPY，15% cash

想问问你，是否你有任何hedge的潜意识念头，虽然你谈到不要太关注各个市场的关联性，但目前TLT和SPY还是负相关的。 难道，SPY 如果下破129.52 （左肩）或127.14 （肩），你真去stop loss吗？因为SPY在120或116可能又是好的买点了。

blessed

找到了，在你的 blog 里面

snowrider

328 发表于 2012-6-11 21:19
雪老大，

操作确实是很费心的，特别是在哪里stop loss，在哪里获利了结。如果是Long term的话更是如 ...

328 - 偶從不鎖單!   做對就是對  做錯就是錯  沒有模稜兩可的!  各個買賣都有各個判斷  今天買SPY因為回檔到 50% (06/04 到今天的高點) 所以偶買來賭它走灰線  如果SPY下來到 129 多 偶會接著繼續買它!   若它跌破 127.14 (around 3% loss) 偶一定會將SPY殺掉認賠!  至於 120 或 116 是否要買進  則到了接近時偶才會考慮

bucks

回复 snowrider 的帖子

Fib50% actually points to 130.6. So the buy at close was sort of front-running to avoid possible gap up tomorrow?

snowrider

bucks 发表于 2012-6-11 22:10
回复 snowrider 的帖子

Fib50% actually points to 130.6. So the buy at close was sort of front-runnin ...

Yes!  The 50% for globex is exactly at the close price of the day.

bucks

回复 snowrider 的帖子

the HS pattern is indeed still a theory or hypothesis. Whether or not it will be valid remains unknown. So, was your trade today actually based on prediction then?

What I see now is a consolidation zone. The closing price sits right at the lower bound, which does favor a rebound tomorrow. But, in a case of gap down, it will be transformed to a very bearish pattern instead. (again, I am talking SPY)

snowrider

bucks 发表于 2012-6-11 22:18
回复 snowrider 的帖子

the HS pattern is indeed still a theory or hypothesis. Whether or not it will ...

For the purchase of SPY, it's based on the assumption that the market was in grey line wave count (bullish count).  The grey line wave count indicates that wave-2 is underway.  How deep the wave-2 can go?  It could be 0.618, but I wanted to enter at 0.5 (before 0.618).  I related that scenario with Dow Theory's HS pattern, for it was easier for people to see the picture.  Again, anything can happen, so I will accept the loss if the market goes against me to some extent.

snowrider

I will sell 1/3 TLT if it falls below the low of 06/07/2012.

snowrider

Bot FAS with the fund in my small troop.