现在明确地喊顶了，希望牛牛下周好自为之。

oldpigwang

Spy daily chart: daily MACD show negative divergency compare by end of Oct high and this Friday high.
Back check 3-4yr spy daily chart, such MACD negative divergency usually forcast a huge bear run in 3-5 months ahead.
That mean Qwe's 1000 bear target will be possibly in the coming summer according to MACD ND forcast, not this, or next month.

Read0nly

oldpigwang 发表于 2012-1-15 23:49
Spy daily chart: daily MACD show negative divergency compare by end of Oct high and this Friday high ...

猪王这么说还是看跌的嘛，跟俺的说法好像不矛盾。俺现在喊的顶是相对于去年10月那个顶之后的第二顶，两者同去年上半年的高点比，这是个反弹逃命的M顶，这是俺去年贴图一直在表达的看法，在突破去年高点之前还没有证伪，至于1300碰还是不碰对俺来说没有什么意义。在俺的帖子里从没说下跌成真的话一竿子就跌到1100或是1000，两腿或三腿的下跌更常见，对那个点位到达时间的预期同你和小熊的说法没有出入。另外，昨晚花时间看了一些对SPX影响比较大的个股，个人感觉是继续高走不太可能，是华尔街割韭菜的时候了。

littletiger

回复 Read0nly 的帖子

DAX is green.

xi xi shui ba.

oldpigwang

回复 Read0nly 的帖子

Swing trend up/down, maybe a chance to buy dip, may not be 反弹逃命的M顶.
Swing trend down, does not mean a start of down trend.
Please check the MACD Nagetive divergency from Oct 2009 to Apr 2010:
MACD kept down, kept dead cross, But SPY price action kept strong up trend=
At that time, you could not say:"个人感觉是继续高走不太可能，是华尔街割韭菜的时候了" since its a strong up trend.
So, "现在明确地喊顶了","是华尔街割韭菜的时候了" may not be a wise call.
Do not front run.














点评回复 引用

ppteam

if not next week, next next week, right?

Diver

Read0nly 发表于 2012-1-14 14:58
本帖最后由 Read0nly 于 2012-1-14 22:50 编辑 近期一直看跌，但没敢像手机和小熊两位旗帜鲜明的喊顶，主要 ...

Diver

黄老泻 发表于 2012-1-14 21:21
200EMA已经转向了，最差的走势如图所示。

甚合吾意！

Diver

黄老泻 发表于 2012-1-14 21:26
最好的走势如图所示。

no way。

Diver

Fan8an 发表于 2012-1-15 05:46
在没有QE3的情况下，ES已经出现两个周线缺口，这是近三年所没有的。所以第二个ES缺口spx 1260会很快补上。

Diver

mindymore7588 发表于 2012-1-15 18:22
ReadOnly calling top
Quickhand calling bottom
are statistically insignificant....
accuracy is quite low

谢谢提醒。

ppteam

"当然了，总有蒙对的一天。至于亏得裤衩都没了，谁又看得见？  发表于 2012-1-16 15:42"

good point.

cc2265

回复 6th-Sense 的帖子

6 Da, how do you think long term US bonds at current low interesting rate? Do the long term bonds have room to  be up more? And short term bonds? thanks.

kdkboy

好了，明天收在1310，然后1320左右晃几天，熊熊有大把的时候来找好机会

俺跟人家学，看VIX

黄老泻

Diver 发表于 2012-1-16 15:51
no way。

oldpigwang

今夜期指明确地暴顶了。

Read0nly

oldpigwang 发表于 2012-1-17 01:43
今夜期指明确地暴顶了。

这是自今年年前以来第二次了，华尔街靠节假日来拉周边市场达到烘托美国股市牛市的气氛。小心明天高开低走。

tracy

谢谢，承你贵言。不跌我都愁死了。手里的钱怎么办啊？！

黄老泻

1350GO!GO!GO!

6th-Sense

cc2265 发表于 2012-1-16 18:38
回复 6th-Sense 的帖子

6 Da, how do you think long term US bonds at current low interesting rate? Do ...

brother, the current low rate is not sustainable... it is kind of "political" for election year.

short- to middle- term, we may see mkt correction even very big correction, that will drive the money flow from stock mkt to gov. bonds.......secondly, i think once the election is over, the rate will be increased very soon.......

oldpigwang

回复 Read0nly 的帖子

一厢情愿！