Perfect Wave - 2012-1/2

menghu

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three key level:

1350, 1360, 1375

cat2011

Thank you for your update. out most my longs last Thursday.

snowrider

for gold, you're saying that the c wave might have ended. you have wave a from 1522-1662, b wave from 1662-1625, and c wave from 1625-1738.

however your c wave is only 113 pts long, compared to wave a's length of 140.

c waves are often longer than a waves, going upto 1.618 times wave a, so why do you think c wave will be truncated this time?

nim1984 - Good point!  We don't know if wave-c has finished yet.  That was just my guess because GCG12 is rolling over to GCJ12 now.  Sometimes a reversal occurs around futures contracts' rollover dates.

snowrider

02/04/2012

Comments are welcome!

P.S., I'll be out of town next whole week and won't be able to reply to any PM or comments.

cat2011

大牛Steve

雪骑老师在上，请受弟子一拜。

snowrider

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大牛你折煞偶了 偶們大家這下棋的過程中是不斷互相學習的 市場是偶們的對手 所以偶們要同心協力共同研究來把行情搞定 常常你看到了某一手棋而偶沒看到 這時偶就從你的看法中獲益 重點是大家都賺錢就對了

hunting, cat2011 - 偶才滑了一個星期的雪回來 很是開心 現在要趕快補做功課了

snowrider

02/12/2012

Comments are welcome!

shoujie

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Questions based on this update:

1) if SPX goes to 1370 first before C5 formed, the C5 will equal C3, or may be great than C3, right ? but we know C5 can't be great than C3 according Wave Theory. How can we explain this?

2) If C5 is really formed at 1370, the Fib 61.5% pull back target should be great than 50 point, right ?

3) how can we draw the a-b-c waves after C5 (It's not indicated in the chart ??) I mean wave 'b' is great than C5 <-- Does it mean 'extend' wave instead of a-b-c waves (purple lines) ?

cat2011

Thank you very much!!

snowrider

shoujie 发表于 2012-2-12 17:35
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Questions based on this update:

shoujie - Thanks for commenting.  以下是偶的回覆 -

1) if SPX goes to 1370 first before C5 formed, the C5 will equal C3, or may be great than C3, right ? but we know C5 can't be great than C3 according Wave Theory. How can we explain this?

C.3 = 84 (1333-1249)
C.5 could be: 1300+84=1384 if C.3=C.5
C.5 could be longer than C.3 (as long as C.3 is not the shortest was in C)

2) If C5 is really formed at 1370, the Fib 61.5% pull back target should be great than 50 point, right ?

If C.5 ends at around 1384, the ideal correction target for C is where the previous 4 ends (C.4, i.e., 1300 area)

3) how can we draw the a-b-c waves after C5 (It's not indicated in the chart ??) I mean wave 'b' is great than C5 <-- Does it mean 'extend' wave instead of a-b-c waves (purple lines) ?

The ending of C.5 is the ending of wave-C.  After that a wave-D could be formed.  We don't know if wave-D will be in regular or irregular correction form until we see the market's behavior.

大牛Steve

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snowrider

I'm a big fan of Elliot wave theory and harmonic trading, however you way over complicate the labeling which deters me (and probably others) from following along. Simply stating the pair and TF (in post) with wave counts 1,2,3,4 a,b,c,d and sub waves as 1a, 1b, 1c, 1d ect works just fine. This, of course, is just my opinion, in the whole scheme of things, it doesn't make much difference.

Big ups for the thread though not many people keep up with these sort of threads. So even if you don't conform to my way of thinking do keep posting charts others will surely find it helpful or at the vary least interesting.

johnny2pips - Thanks for commenting and the suggestion. Please take a look the very first post of this thread, and it will give us an idea about the convention of my wave labeling. It is actually much easier to read and much less confusing than that of most famous EW techinicians. Yes, I agree that "it doesn't make much difference" on different labeling ways because we EW techinicians speak the same language - impulsive vs corrective waves.

snowrider

閒聊

偶說過N次(但不知有沒有在HT說過)就是不要鎖單(i.e., hedge)
做鎖單的人基本上是最不會trade的 也是最不懂得trading的
一旦一個倉給鎖了 接著就是千層鎖萬層鎖然後是鎖上加鎖
最後會搞的該賺的沒賺到 但做錯的倉是賠的滿滿的
總而言之一句話就是: 看錯行情就應當立刻一刀砍 - 認賠重做

snowrider

老股民 dsp ... "Must learn how to lock profit..."

dsp - 偶倆對於"鎖"的認定有點不同(可能是中文翻譯不同吧?!)　如果妳認為要學("Must learn")去鎖利("lock profit")　為何不讓 profit run 呢?　為何要限制利潤的空間呢?  讓 profit run 是大道至簡的一件事就是設個 stop order 罷了 (either hard stop or mental stop)

偶所極不贊同的鎖是去 hedge (古時候那叫做鎖單) 偶不知現在國內叫那是甚麼
基本上鎖單是一種自欺的鴕鳥行為且是必註定成不了好的 trader

snowrider

02/18/2012

Comments are welcome!

大牛Steve

shoujie

JohnHsu

dsp

snowrider 发表于 2012-2-17 16:18
老股民 dsp ... "Must learn how to lock profit..."

dsp - 偶倆對於"鎖"的認定有點不同(可能是中文翻譯 ...

多谢你的讨论，不好意思，我的那点小心思也入了你的法眼。俗话说会买的是徒弟，会卖的才是师傅。我今年初的几单都是卖的太早，放掉了盈利的50%，痛定之后，决定要提醒自己不要急于卖掉。可是卖在顶部也是很难，最近又开始卖到右边了，一样跳脚。 let profit run 是很好，总要入袋为安吧，什么时候最好哪？我正在研究。