本帖最后由 328 于 2011-12-19 21:40 编辑
O'Neil's Sell Short (chart shown below)
As Diagram 1 shows at Point 1, the initial top occurs as the stock is hammered on heavy volume from a point at or near its all time highs. Major price breaks that occur on volume that is either the highest or nearly highest in the stock’s entire move are clues that a stock is under significant distribution.
Generally this occurs as the stock breaks out of a faulty, late-stage base and fails, reversing back through its pivot point, or the stock will simply drop out of the bottom of a late-stage base it may still be in the process of forming. Either way, the stock will come down fairly quickly on big volume over the course of one to five weeks or more, undercutting a prior basing or consolidation area where it will draw in short sellers who see the stock breaking a major “support” level at Point 2.
However, what is obvious to most in the stock market seldom works, and stock abruptly turns to the upside and stages a sharp rally, making a run at and usually clearing its 50-day moving average.
After the stock rallies two to four times back above its 50-day moving average, the proper time and price point to execute the short sale will present itself at Point 3. After the first few rallies back above the 50-day moving average, there will come one final rally, which usually occurs on lighter volume than the prior rallies, and the volume appears to diminish as the stock moves higher. This can also be accompanied by stalling action. This is indicating that demand for the stock is finally waning, and the first high-volume turn to the downside is your signal to sell short. If you are alert, and the market is moving to the downside at the same time, possibly failing on a follow-through attempt, occasionally you can sell short as the stock is rallying on light volume, just before it dives. This is tricky and a little riskier than waiting for the downside volume to come in, but it can give you a slight head start.
Some exceptions will occur, however, and in rare instances a stock will have only one rally back up over the 50-day moving average or it may have several rallies that trade up to the 50-day moving average without actually getting above it. You may ask how you can tell which rally is the stock’s last rally, and the honest answer is that you never know for sure. The key point is that each rally back above the 50-day moving average should be analyzed within the context of the general market environment as well as the technical “quality” of the specific rally. For example, is the rally showing severe stalling or is it “wedging” higher on lighter and lighter volume, and does this technical action distinguish it from the prior rallies back above the 50-day? Has the market been rallying for the past few days into overhead resistance and is simultaneously rolling over as the stock’s final rally gives way? These can be clues that a failed rally could be the correct time to short.
Patterns with only one rally are much harder to decipher than those with three to four, and it is possible that you may be topped out of premature short sales when you attempt to sell short on a stock’s first breach of the 50-day moving average following an initial rally back above the moving average. The odds of success increase with each successive rally back above the 50-day moving average, so naturally your odds are higher with stocks that have had three to four rallies or more above the 50-day moving average than those with only one or two. If you can afford to be very selective, then by all means do so and stick to those short sale candidates that have put in three to four rallies or more.
This entire pattern traces out an A-B-C “head & shoulder top” with A and C indicating the left and right shoulders, respectively, and B, the head. In general, the right shoulder should form lower than the left shoulder, and several bouts of heavy downside volume should be evident in the right shoulder so that the overall patter has increasing average volume as it forms from left to right.
Head & Shoulders top patterns can form over the course of five to seven months or more. The “size” or duration of the pattern is not as important as the price and volume action the pattern itself. If a stock forms a head & shoulders top over the course of only three months and is giving all the technical signals that indicate it should be sold short, then the short sale should be made.
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1. there are many techniques in the above when you carefully read it, such as how to read volume, how many bases, how to judge a trend by its last base, 50MA, how many times to rally to 50MA, Head and shoulders, wedging, overhead resistance, etc. O'Neil put many things altogether for one setup.
2. Kind of similar to 老蛇的1-2-3 trend change pattern.
3. you can buy the book less than $20 if you are interested in it.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2011-12-16 10:16 AM
