顶或许已经过了

kenwind

nasd 发表于 2011-8-31 11:21
made my first entry today with stop set.

You are in a better position than I am. Cheers!

QWE

Read0nly 发表于 2011-8-31 11:14
楼主等的那个顶应该是今天。接下来的两天是回调，甚至有可能延续到下周初。这是空头Cover的机会。短期俺还是 ...

今天也不像是顶，至少目前为止，大盘还比较强，VIX没有背离

bucks

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your timing may be a bit early relative to mine, but I guess your short positions would be just fine. Your trading strategy looks fit your own characters very well, which is critical to the whole trading exercises. I am still searching for my own.

It's certainly possible the market just  marches north without looking back at all, but considering the strong downward momentum before, I admit it's a small odds event if it ever happens. Do you set a stop to cut loss then?

By the way, my system has not given a sell signal yet, but I project it's not far. Possibly a pullback, and then a final push-up to end this rally.

nasd

kenwind 发表于 2011-8-31 11:27
You are in a better position than I am. Cheers!

Not quite... my first entry is way smaller compared to yours, plus I'm ready to run anytime...

QWE

kenwind 发表于 2011-8-31 11:27
Next week, there will be lots of bad news from Europe. Greece funding issue, multiple notch down ...

我看好1240，应该去碰一碰

kenwind

bucks 发表于 2011-8-31 11:31
回复 kenwind 的帖子

your timing may be a bit early relative to mine, but I guess your short positio ...

As long as weekly close is below 1200, I am very confident.
But when daily close is above 1260, I will be worried on my short positions.

kenwind

nasd 发表于 2011-8-31 11:31
Not quite... my first entry is way smaller compared to yours, plus I'm ready to run anytime...

Get the rythem that fits your personality. It takes me sometime to figure out that mid-term trading works for me best.

balto

kenwind 发表于 2011-8-31 10:25
Agree that there may be bad inside info out there. That's why they need us here to manage the port ...

不说啥了，赚钱是硬道理，既然你的401k一直跑赢大市那就说明你的系统是相当厉害的，如果你不在乎几天的涨跌当然没啥关系。。。

Read0nly

kenwind 发表于 2011-8-31 11:27
Next week, there will be lots of bad news from Europe. Greece funding issue, multiple notch down ...

看俺那个M顶的图，到1250不是下周的事，中间会有震荡。无论是看涨还是看跌都有机会。只有看牛的力量有一定的释放，暴跌才有可能。按老猪王PF的思路以及俺自己的TA，暴跌还不是时候。俺过去两年的经历就是对暴跌的盼望太强，错过了许多按TA该做Long的机会。华尔街喜欢跌中有涨，涨中有跌的路子，的顺着他们的路子走。

ysc

balto 发表于 2011-8-31 09:37
不要听花街耳语啦，等你都听到了，估计不是最后一批也是“被耳语”的对象。。。说过很多次，做空不比做多 ...

(Source: Economist cover from 1998)

Read0nly

QWE 发表于 2011-8-31 11:29
今天也不像是顶，至少目前为止，大盘还比较强，VIX没有背离

俺还看别的短期指标。今天目前的高点接近日线EMA50，俺看回调的底在明后天的1200附近。

kenwind

Read0nly 发表于 2011-8-31 11:40
俺还看别的短期指标。今天目前的高点接近日线EMA50，俺看回调的底在明后天的1200附近。

只要回调到1200附近，就不再是回调了，是下跌浪的开始。
回调到1210，小牛还是有点戏的。

QWE

Read0nly 发表于 2011-8-31 11:40
俺还看别的短期指标。今天目前的高点接近日线EMA50，俺看回调的底在明后天的1200附近。

今天开盘不久，短时攻上了1230，我的第一批SHORT成交了，看目前样子，后面可能还会上攻一次，冲上1240非常可能

nasd

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are you keeping your dip-buying long?

QWE

nasd 发表于 2011-9-1 13:23
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are you keeping your dip-buying long?

yes! part of it. 我不担心LONG，可能一直持有几年都没问题，分批看情况买，有盈利就抛出部分。但是SHORT应该比较小心谨慎些。在大盘长期走向未定时，继续慢慢加仓

nasd

My 2nd barrel was just fired.  

kenwind

nasd 发表于 2011-9-1 14:06
My 2nd barrel was just fired.

Nice!

kenwind

QWE 发表于 2011-9-1 13:47
yes! part of it. 我不担心LONG，可能一直持有几年都没问题，分批看情况买，有盈利就抛出部分。但是SHORT ...

Too be honest, I made more money by shorting.
2007 and 2008 my 401K perform even better than 2009.

QWE

kenwind 发表于 2011-9-1 14:57
Too be honest, I made more money by shorting.
2007 and 2008 my 401K perform even better than 2009 ...

woo, 祝贺！

austinjoe

If spy can't snap back to 121.84 or at most 122.28, then we get the down confirmation today.