Defualt is default, there is nothing technical about it. If so, all EU banks holding the notes go down with it. There comes crisis two, USD shoot up.
2. Ok, ok, Argentine trick. Too bad, I doubt this will work. Hell, I am too polite, this WON'T work. You can compare the difference between the two economy.
3. I heard this too but please check my reply to 手枪。
１. economic leading indicator - turned to negative in latest reading. > Big warning of broadbased slow down.
2. NIKKEI Futures 一下子掉1000 > First big warning from a developed country (you can blame the disaster).
3. China CPI reading keeps > 5% for 2 quarters. > Big warning from one of the biggest exportors.
4. Commodity & commodity currencies as a leading indicator, they didn't make new high when SPX spiked above 1370.
Lots of macro economic factors don't support a bull market. That's the reason why from this April 8, I'm fighting those big bulls with one key measure - 'VALUATION'. valutation 不答应的话，宏观的流动性因素不能支撑高估价，所以，这一段如果基于Macro factors 的 Negative Divergence 来做交易，如果leverage 大并且赌单边多的化，是很危险的。
Well, we back to my question. What FA support strong EURO/USD?
汇率是个相对价值比率数字而已，按照传统的Parity Pair 的理论，决定两个货币汇率的因素：
1. Inflation rate (expected , actual).
2. Real Risk Free Interest Rate.
3. Real economic growth rate.
4. Country Risk Premium ( if that country is not USA, USA has almost zero default risk, what a fuck!)
5. Central Bank's Balance of Payment) or reactive intervention (currency protection actions)
宏观经济中与汇率相关的供需因素：
1. 出口需求
2. 进口需求
3. 对外投资需求
4. 外来投资需求
很难用基本面的绝对数字来衡量。
EURO 维持在1.35 以上的高汇率，我觉得是ECB 的决策失误所致。欧洲人的傲慢和优越感，让它们昏了头，更加重对PIIGS 伍国的债券危机。试问，有哪个国家愿意在一个大幅升值的货币基础上，支付高利贷。
狗仔卡
发表于 2011-6-10 09:19 PM
发表于 2011-6-10 09:32 PM
