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发表于 2010-2-8 01:55 PM
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CS view:
We look for the S&P to stage a modest reflex rebound following the decline to our
1045/25 target, but the broader risk is seen lower.
The collapse in the S&P 500 following the break of 13-week average support and the
completion of a weekly RSI momentum top (and bearish divergence) have seen the
market test and thus far hold the beginning of our 1045/25 target zone – 38.2% of the rally
from July, November low and the rising 40-week average. We look for modest extension
of the upturn begun late on Friday, but anticipate initial resistance at 1073/77, and do not
expect levels to exceed short-term downtrend/13-day average resistance at 1090/93.
With medium-term momentum continuing to bear down, we would then look for a fresh
challenge on 1045/25. Below here would open the door to a more significant setback to
976/65 - the 61.8% retracement of the July/January wave, and more importantly, the
38.2% retracement of the entire 2009/2010 uptrend.
Above 1103/05 is needed to post a short-term bullish reversal, increasing the risk the
worst of the sell-off may already be behind us. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2010-2-8 02:01 PM
