|
|
发表于 2011-6-7 02:59 PM
|
显示全部楼层
TEXT-Bernanke's economy speech to Atlanta conference
Tue Jun 7, 2011 3:52pm EDT
The prospect of increasing fiscal drag on the recovery highlights one of
the many difficult tradeoffs faced by fiscal policymakers: If the nation is to
have a healthy economic future, policymakers urgently need to put the federal
government's finances on a sustainable trajectory. But, on the other hand, a
sharp fiscal consolidation focused on the very near term could be
self-defeating if it were to undercut the still-fragile recovery.
The solution to this dilemma, I believe, lies in recognizing that our nation's
fiscal problems are inherently long-term in nature. Consequently, the
appropriate response is to move quickly to enact a credible, long-term plan for
fiscal consolidation. By taking decisions today that lead to fiscal
consolidation over a longer horizon, policymakers can avoid a sudden fiscal
contraction that could put the recovery at risk. At the same time, establishing
a credible plan for reducing future deficits now would not only enhance
economic performance in the long run, but could also yield near-term benefits
by leading to lower long-term interest rates and increased consumer and
business confidence.
The Outlook for Inflation
Let me turn to the outlook for inflation. As you all know, over the past
year, prices for many commodities have risen sharply, resulting in
significantly higher consumer prices for gasoline and other energy products
and, to a somewhat lesser extent, for food. Overall inflation measures reflect
these price increases: For example, over the six months through April, the
price index for personal consumption expenditures has risen at an annual rate
of about 3-1/2 percent, compared with an average of less than 1 percent over
the preceding two years.
Although the recent increase in inflation is a concern, the appropriate
diagnosis and policy response depend on whether the rise in inflation is likely
to persist. So far at least, there is not much evidence that inflation is
becoming broad-based or ingrained in our economy; indeed, increases in the
price of a single product--gasoline--account for the bulk of the recent
increase in consumer price inflation.1 Of course, gasoline prices are
exceptionally important for both family finances and the broader economy; but
the fact that gasoline price increases alone account for so much of the overall
increase in inflation suggests that developments in the global market for crude
oil and related products, as well as in other commodities markets, are the
principal factors behind the recent movements in inflation, rather than factors
specific to the U.S. economy. An important implication is that if the prices of
energy and other commodities stabilize in ranges near current levels, as
futures markets and many forecasters predict, the upward impetus to overall
price inflation will wane and the recent increase in inflation will prove
transitory. Indeed, the declines in many commodity prices seen over the past
few weeks may be an indication that such moderation is occurring. I will
discuss commodity prices further momentarily.
Besides the prospect of more-stable commodity prices, two other factors
suggest that inflation is likely to return to more subdued levels in the medium
term. First, the still-substantial slack in U.S. labor and product markets
should continue to have a moderating effect on inflationary pressures. Notably,
because of the weak demand for labor, wage increases have not kept pace with
productivity gains. Thus the level of unit labor costs in the business sector
is lower than it was before the recession. Given the large share of labor costs
in the production costs of most firms (typically, a share far larger than that
of raw materials costs), subdued unit labor costs should remain a restraining
influence on inflation. To be clear, I am not arguing that healthy increases in
real wages are inconsistent with low inflation; the two are perfectly
consistent so long as productivity growth is reasonably strong.
The second additional factor restraining inflation is the stability of
longer-term inflation expectations. Despite the recent pickup in overall
inflation, measures of households' longer-term inflation expectations from the
Michigan survey, the 10-year inflation projections of professional economists,
the 5-year-forward measure of inflation compensation derived from yields on
inflation-protected securities, and other measures of longer-term inflation
expectations have all remained reasonably stable.2 As long as longer-term
inflation expectations are stable, increases in global commodity prices are
unlikely to be built into domestic wage- and price-setting processes, and they
should therefore have only transitory effects on the rate of inflation. That
said, the stability of inflation expectations is ensured only as long as the
commitment of the central bank to low and stable inflation remains credible.
Thus, the Federal Reserve will continue to closely monitor the evolution of
inflation and inflation expectations and will take whatever actions are
necessary to keep inflation well controlled.
Commodity Prices
As I noted earlier, the rise in commodity prices has directly increased the
rate of inflation while also adversely affecting consumer confidence and
consumer spending. Let's look at these price increases in closer detail.
The basic facts are familiar. Oil prices have risen significantly, with the
spot price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil near $100 per barrel as of the
end of last week, up nearly 40 percent from a year ago. Proportionally, prices
of corn and wheat have risen even more, roughly doubling over the past year.
And prices of industrial metals have increased notably as well, with aluminum
and copper prices up about one-third over the past 12 months. When the price of
any product moves sharply, the economist's first instinct is to look for
changes in the supply of or demand for that product. And indeed, the recent
increase in commodity prices appears largely to be the result of the same
factors that drove commodity prices higher throughout much of the past decade:
strong gains in global demand that have not been met with commensurate
increases in supply.
|
|
狗仔卡
