关于滞胀----星兄请接砖

AGA7d

回复  AGA7d


   GDP 和 Revenue 不一定是正相关的, 比如产品没有卖掉作为库存, 是不计入Revenue但还是 ...
BlueRiver 发表于 2010-7-30 20:36

去年底和年初公司补充库存，所以GDP在涨，现在这动力基本没了，所以GDP不太动或微涨。你话
有理，但你认为公司会弄一大堆库存，可有消息佐证？咱就这现在经济说话，是不？

永恒罗马

好贴，先顶了，然后慢慢拜读学习

revolver

Stagnation means inflation + recession. It doesn't have to be caused by a price/wage spiral in U.S. Indeed I beleive in the current golobalized environment, the price/wage spiral will happens in BRIC and other emerging markets like India & Southeast Asia and resource countries (Australia, Canada & some African countries) first, and then pass the increased prices to U.S..

BlueRiver

回复 21# AGA7d

GDP的增加有很多原因， 和公司的Revenue是两码事， 我说的是一种可能的情况  （比如。。。 ），其他还有进口减少， 政府开支的增加， 都会增加GDP， 即使公司的Revenue下降。

Profit up, revenue down, 看看Intc, ibm, aa 就知道了。

AGA7d

回复  AGA7d

GDP的增加有很多原因， 和公司的Revenue是两码事， 我说的是一种可能的情况  （比如。。。 ...
BlueRiver 发表于 2010-7-31 12:03

你是和上个季度比？惯例是YOY吧，因为季节性。INTC YOY营收增加34%，不知你何来down一说？

colderdown

回复 11# AGA7d

“The economy of the US grew at a weaker than expected 2.4% in the second quarter, but the first quarter was revised back up to 3.7% on the strength of stronger-than-projected inventory rebuilding. But the recession years were revised downward rather significantly for this late in the cycle. We find now that the recession was worse than we thought, taking the economy down a total of 4.1% during the recession. As of today, we are not quite back to where we started, still down 1%. That means it is quite possible that we could finish the year and still not be "there yet." (To see a 1% rise in GDP we would need to see a 2% annualized rise for the rest of the year. We'll look at that possibility in a few paragraphs.)

If this were an average recovery, the economy would be growing at a 6% rate at this point, which pretty much says it all about our current 2.4% number. Further, 2.5 years after the beginning of a recession, we are typically already 8% higher than the prior high. This is a very tepid recovery, indeed.”

colderdown

回复 23# revolver

A few people did think this is possible, such as "THE star----Lang". Nevertheless, IMHO, this is near impossible. Currency war, maybe. The key is the reducing price was caused by decreasing final demands but not increased productivity. With Bush tax cut expire next yr, state and local gov. forced to reduce spending since O8's bullsh%t stimulus part for them will run out the 2nd half of this yr, with national debt is already very high, there is not much traditional means gov. can help demanding part. Meanwhile, after 2 yrs inventory built up, inventory-to-sales ratios are at an 8-month high, the demand for inventory built up may back off too.

Anyway, here is the data:

inflation 4%, 2007, -2% at the end of 2008, 3% 2009, 1% now.

AGA7d

关于中国提高出口价会导致美国通货膨胀上升，表面上这是个压力，但实际上不严重。
原因是出口价在零售价里占的比率不大，很多时候就1/4或1/5吧，所以出口价涨10%，
如果零售商全部转给终端消费者，也就是2-3%的升幅，如果零售商还能消化一点，那
最终影响就很小了。另外，由于大宗商品价下跌（能源，铁矿石等），抵消了不少工资
上涨对出口价的影响，所以制造国被迫提价的压力比许多人想象的要小。

AGA7d

回复  revolver

A few people did think this is possible, such as "THE star----Lang". Nevertheless ...
colderdown 发表于 2010-8-1 01:22

税和州/地方政府赤字是个不确定因素，对联邦赤字我倒不很耽心，政客们都有共识，现在考虑消减
赤字还为时太早，前两天Orzag还出来解释。

明年的税是不是涨现在还不好说，盖特纳说涨富人的税，穷人和中产阶级不动，但好象光涨富人的
也有不少反对，包括一些民主党议员。

有几个州的财政已临绝境，所以大幅减开支是肯定的，会有多少人因此丢工作呢？我还没见过一个
好的分析。

hbw

回复  BlueRiver

It is not a simple question about who is buying debt from who. The real question ...
colderdown 发表于 2010-7-30 15:55

    The real question is what is the function of debt in real economy.

这个问题是金融的“内核”。希望有讨论和回答。。。