06/04/2010 After Bell Quick Summary

小猩猩

回复 1# Cobra

X中国陆军

Nice

cc2265

mayoutu

This Monday market was closed so don't count as red.

I still doubt the way you forecast whether green or red the next day. I'm still thinking you are using data from a huge rally (09/03-10/04) as your main data base. Frankly speaking, even if you use all years' data, it's not a good way: the market goes up as a whole, 70+% time bull, 30-% time bear, so if using all data, probably the result is still bullish. One way to get a more neutral result, is to use data half from bull market, half from bear market. But, even in that way, we still get quite wrong results, probably. Why? Because market is so complex that it's not like rolling dice, and a single day's move is more random than one week's move.

I'm interested in 方法论 on stock study, and I think we should think if a method works then use it. Thanks.

songjiang

fara

hifive

tonyshen

babyruth

sooners

回复 1# Cobra


   

Bencat

songjiang

If today's NFP data is not so disappointed, market would hike up for a while.

H@T

HTER

HAVE A NICE WEEKEND

Cobra

This Monday market was closed so don't count as red.

I still doubt the way you forecast whether g ...
mayoutu 发表于 2010-6-4 18:55

1. 老大，我发现你经常只看一半我说的东西。Monday has the tendency to CONSTANTLY outperform or underperform，这句话你没看到吗？换句话说，就是一段时间表现出这个特征，另一段时间表现出另一个特征，现在我并不确定是否特征要改变了。这是花钱买来的结果，现在免费跟你分享了，我也就只能说这么多了。
2. 关于使用某个信号或者规律，没有什么东西可以100%准，也没有什么东西可以一直有用，所以唯一的原则就是假设他有用，直到他没用为止。
3. 我call第二天的成功率还是很高的，不然就不会有那么多人看了。我也从来没把这个当成啥trading的标准，只是for fun only，所以whatever，不必那么认真。
4. 谢谢你好意提醒，每天收盘都想点东西说不容易，你如果觉得我不该说这些，你能否提供个思路，每天收盘，我应该说啥？先谢过了。

navybean

Thanks.

atrader

thanks

like2swing

thanks

Fan8an

thanks

informixca

thanks