讨论：大宗商品是否可以进？

jeff110

我今年最亏的就是DAG,小麦大豆玉米是一路跌啊,不知什么时候能翻身.谁有高见?

trueself

人之初

回复 17# seafood
同问

北京哥哥

回复 20# yaobooyao

我的意思是要注意copper市场的走势，它对经济强弱的反应很敏感，有先知先觉的作用。你可以拿它和股市的历史图形比比

北京哥哥

回复 21# jeff110


    6月-7月会有涨的机会，但总体今年农产品有供应过剩的问题。

yaobooyao

回复  seafood
同问
人之初 发表于 2010-5-12 08:25

对不起，回晚了。因为我现在都是早晨8点左右看一眼。

这是我这两天买的矿业股：

美股： FCX、 AA、CENX、ACH
加股： TCK.B ， JAG.TO,  TCM.TO

都是Basic Metal。

shoping 完了， 剩下的就看欧元了。

说明：我这是长期多仓，赌的是EURO/USD、外加远期经济增长预期和通胀预期，可能要等些日子。好处是与大盘直接关系不大，坏处你自己看吧，风险都是自己的。赚了你高兴，亏了别骂我。

另外，我看好石油会上涨了， USO 应该是好入点，止损容易。 不过我没有买它。

上图。

老黄

经济的 割肉死 已经不大了。

商品股可能要横好一阵子。

yaobooyao

经济的 割肉死 已经不大了。

商品股可能要横好一阵子。
老黄 发表于 2010-5-12 17:39

横吧， 我没时间天天看着， 不过你看看FCX、TCK 的P/E 值，都在8上下，就算套住，也不怕。

市场总是在极度悲观和极度乐观之间来回崩溃。

老黄

横吧， 我没时间天天看着， 不过你看看FCX、TCK 的P/E 值，都在8上下，就算套住，也不怕。

市场总是 ...
yaobooyao 发表于 2010-5-12 17:42

    越是低PE，越横

多贿赂点钱，俺给你解释

Diffusion

越是低PE，越横

多贿赂点钱，俺给你解释
老黄 发表于 2010-5-12 17:44

    我也贿赂点，等解释。

yaobooyao

越是低PE，越横

多贿赂点钱，俺给你解释
老黄 发表于 2010-5-12 17:44

有情黄教兽。

rnhoo

回复 26# yaobooyao

为什么没有买铁？

yaobooyao

回复  yaobooyao

为什么没有买铁？
rnhoo 发表于 2010-5-12 18:13

铁矿股不熟悉。

我喜欢铜臭味。

老黄

commodity stocks are generally considered as value stocks.
They are mostly capital intensive, thus expose to more risk during economic downturn。

Their tangible and untangible book values are tie to the underlying commodity price.
Their earnings are influenced by both inputs and outputs.

A low PE  means the market has plugged in a slow growth for earnings using any simple valuation model.
A low PE also means that the company is not spending (capital expenditure) which also translate to slow growth in the future.

And I agree, the downside is limited.

I have FCX. But for AA, I have to say that it is less of a typical commodity company. Aluminum is all about demand and energy cost. Underground value is not that important.

老黄

Now with commodity prices still close to the top of a cycle,  we have to rely on further currency debase to drive the prices even higher. However, I see monetary policy in US tilts to tighten under political pressure. EU problem will pushes that date further, but the EU problem itself is deflationary.

hbw

回复 28# yaobooyao


    加拿大股指恢复得好于澳洲股指，可石油反弹低于黄金等，有问题了。。。

yaobooyao

commodity stocks are generally considered as value stocks.
They are mostly capital intensive, thus  ...
老黄 发表于 2010-5-12 18:21

到底是黄教授。。有许多道理。。。

yaobooyao

Now with commodity prices still close to the top of a cycle,  we have to rely on further currency de ...
老黄 发表于 2010-5-12 18:32

This is in my calculation.  I'm looking at EUR/USD at its 3 year low level as a floor to bounce.

Let's wait and see. Fingers crossed!

老黄

This is in my calculation.  I'm looking at EUR/USD at its 3 year low level as a floor to bounce. ...
yaobooyao 发表于 2010-5-12 18:44

    EU is in a second contraction. it will may cancel some of the currency effect.

hbw

This is in my calculation.  I'm looking at EUR/USD at its 3 year low level as a floor to bounce. ...
yaobooyao 发表于 2010-5-12 18:44

I'm looking at EUR/USD at its 3 year low level as a floor to bounce.

请进一步解释你的想法？美元还没有贬到头？美国经济还要3年喘息？