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发表于 2010-4-12 07:04 PM
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我在想,为什么EWI 还是坚持认为从去年三月到现在是P2。 而且认为P1 of bull market 或A of A-B-C 理论is not right?
Based on the guidelines of wave formation, the best interpretation is that the rally from March 2009 remains a "triple zigzag."
Their argument is: The rise, if plotted on any time scale shorter than a weekly basis, cannot be counted as five waves without violating rules and guidelines. Waves one and three do not subdivide into five waves, breaking one of the most basic tenets of Elliott wave analysis: All moves in the direction of the one-large tend must subdivide into "fives". Moreover, waves two and four are both simple zigzags, a violation of the guideline of alternation. Based on just these two tenets alone, a bull-market interpretation of the structure is a low probability. On the other hand, it is natural for a triple zigzag to subdivide exactly this way. |
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