节日忧郁症

ranchgirl

Not utility however.  

Utility is defensive sector and perform well in contraction, but in growing and recovering phase,  growth is always in favor of  tech/finance and commodity sectors.
yaobooyao 发表于 2009-12-25 21:46

good point!!!

Thanks!

trytry

20# yaobooyao

不向MM进贡， 没资格做青蛙

ranchgirl

haha, found it! sector rotation!!!!

yaobooyao

However, it is kind of conflict with this picture



Sorry, I could not find the big one some ...
ranchgirl 发表于 2009-12-25 21:50

This picture is too general, there a lot of this kind investment clock around.  

In recovery phase,

Tech sector  average return is 3.3%
Utility sector average return is -3.1%

ranchgirl

This picture is too general, there a lot of this kind investment clock around.  

In recovery phase,

Tech sector  average return is 3.3%
Utility sector average return is -3.1%
yaobooyao 发表于 2009-12-25 22:03

This year is super bull?

yaobooyao

This year is super bull?
ranchgirl 发表于 2009-12-25 22:11

Up more than 50% from the trough, you name it.

ranchgirl

actually YTD:
Technology has been up 60-80% this year, and utility is only up about 17% .

Let alone from March bottom.

ranchgirl

Are we going to the Consumer Discretionary phase now? I doubt it.

With this high unemployment rate.

ranchgirl

My numbers are from smartmoney.com.  Average return of sector mutual funds

yaobooyao

Are we going to the Consumer Discretionary phase now? I doubt it.

With this high unemployment rate.
ranchgirl 发表于 2009-12-25 22:17

Not necessarily I should say.  The cycle is just a concept.

yaobooyao

My numbers are from smartmoney.com.  Average return of sector mutual funds
ranchgirl 发表于 2009-12-25 22:18

Mine is from Datastream,  cover 1973 to 2004.  Compounded annual return of  US sectors.

ranchgirl

My numbers are brand new, until yesterday.

yaobooyao

My numbers are brand new, until yesterday.
ranchgirl 发表于 2009-12-25 22:35

Do you have the full S&P report?

ranchgirl

Do you have the full S&P report?
yaobooyao 发表于 2009-12-25 22:37

no, I am playing mutual fund sectors. That is why I am always watching the mutual fund average returns.

ajs

ut1984

大哥别忧郁