拿着鸡毛

bayliner1979

I think this is about 大数定理，not MM阴谋论。

At every OE day, SPY/QQQQ does close at the maxpain price AT THAT DAY.  (SPY this month's maxpain is 110.xx, and the closing price is 110.24).

However, the maxpain price is changing all the time.   Typically two weeks before the OE day, it is nearly impossible to predict the OE maxpain price with any reasonable deviation.   This is because the stock price fluctuation will inject positive/negative feedbacks into option's price (hence affecting option's maxpain price).   Therefore, like every individual option price,  the global option maxpain price is also a fluctuating curve, which finally converges to the OE closing price at 4:00pm OE day.   The trick is don't predict maxpain price at OE too early, and don't be too greedy: Short strangle at relatively deep OTM prices will always win if you play it nicely.  But don't be too greedy, you can earn at most 1% monthly by short strangle.  If you overdo the short strangle, one abrupt move in the stock market will kill you for sure.

MM阴谋论。
ppteam 发表于 2009-12-21 16:42

Diver

I think this is about 大数定理，not MM阴谋论。

At every OE day, SPY/QQQQ does close at the maxpain price AT THAT DAY.  (SPY this month's maxpain is 110.xx, and the closing price is 110.24).

However, the maxpain price is changing all the time.   Typically two weeks before the OE day, it is nearly impossible to predict the OE maxpain price with any reasonable deviation.   This is because the stock price fluctuation will inject positive/negative feedbacks into option's price (hence affecting option's maxpain price).   Therefore, like every individual option price,  the global option maxpain price is also a fluctuating curve, which finally converges to the OE closing price at 4:00pm OE day.   The trick is don't predict maxpain price at OE too early, and don't be too greedy: Short strangle at relatively deep OTM prices will always win if you play it nicely.  But don't be too greedy, you can earn at most 1% monthly by short strangle.  If you overdo the short strangle, one abrupt move in the stock market will kill you for sure.
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-12-21 16:59

dapangmao

低调

demand