SPY to drop 50%??

CoolMax

From yahoo finance:
Strike        Symbol        Last        Chg                        Bid          Ask              Vol               Open Int
55.00        CYUXC.X        0.60        Down 0.01        0.59          0.63        48,577        119,073
temujin 发表于 2009-12-10 07:35 PM

$60 x 48.577 ~ $3 million.

如果大盘跌到550停，他不是亏惨了。

dara

$60 x 48.577 ~ $3 million.

如果大盘跌到550停，他不是亏惨了。
CoolMax 发表于 2009-12-10 19:56

$3M is really nothing. Who the h*ll cares.

BF wrote billions of SPX~500PUT.

AGA7d

1# wuyouren

That implies another financial meltdown. I scratch my head - and cannot find anything that can trigger it in the next year or so. As a country, U.S. gov has a "D" in finance. But the companies are doing fine - get "B+". The stock market is for companies, not U.S. gov. So the "560" talk is just being sensational.

buctusa

Dara is 女人???

女人骂街就是牛x


soulvirus 发表于 2009-12-10 18:40

dara

Dara is 女人???




buctusa 发表于 2009-12-10 20:08

女人能一年trade 5000+次吗?

AGA7d

$3M is really nothing. Who the h*ll cares.

BF wrote billions of SPX~500PUT.
dara 发表于 2009-12-10 20:03

同意

pooq

betting stock mkt like 1929...  :)

20# temujin

ppteam

pig market for the rest of month

yingying

刚刚看了一下，DEC 10年 55的PUT是巨量，可是50的PUT也是巨量啊。解说的这个analyst到底懂不懂啊，没看到这个视频，有没有人能贴一下啊。
如果大户卖55的扑买50的hedge一下，那是在赌大盘根本就不可能跌到550的，这是看牛的操作。现在感觉这个操作根本就是sure money。大盘根本就不可能一年之内跌到550，我看我们小散也可以照猫画虎的也卖55买50的扑，稳赚。唯一的就是上不了量赚不了多少。

yingying

再算一下，大户这单俺120,000 pair来算的话，可以白白吃进至少：120000*15=1800000
哎，我要有这么多钱，我现在也这样卖。

terranmn

??

wuyouren

刚刚看了一下，DEC 10年 55的PUT是巨量，可是50的PUT也是巨量啊。解说的这个analyst到底懂不懂啊，没看到这个视频，有没有人能贴一下啊。
如果大户卖55的扑买50的hedge一下，那是在赌大盘根本就不可能跌到550的，这 ...
yingying 发表于 2009-12-10 23:02

co-ask 一下， 详细点？frog还是不太明白...

从表面看如果象你说的那样 两笔交易（卖55 put 买 50put) 都成功，那说明还是有人接盘赌大盘跌咯?...

虽然损失3M对投行来说可能不是很大的数字，但如果没人相信大盘会跌50％的话，这样做好像就很没有必要.... 难道大户钱多烧得慌？即不想牟利也不想hedge就是要砸水里？？

coexist

yingying

co-ask 一下， 详细点？frog还是不太明白...

从表面看如果象你说的那样 两笔交易（卖55 put 买 50put) 都成功，那说明还是有人接盘赌大盘跌咯?...

虽然损失3M对投行来说可能不是很大的数字，但如果没人相信 ...
wuyouren 发表于 2009-12-11 00:04

FT, sell 55 put and buy 50 put at the same time, that's to eat the premium, that's to bet market won't drop to 550 before Dec 2010. They can gain $1.8M premium. If you still don't understand, please read an option book.

wuyouren

FT, sell 55 put and buy 50 put at the same time, that's to eat the premium, that's to bet market won't drop to 550 before Dec 2010. They can gain $1.8M premium. If you still don't understand, pl ...
yingying 发表于 2009-12-11 09:17

I see what you are saying.  But what I don't understand is:
假定A sell 55 put and buy 50 put at the same time,
那么大的量，说明也有人B大量买55 put 卖 50 put, 那么B不是在bet market will drop to 50-55 range ?  如果没人看熊，那A不可能卖掉55 put的呀...

TXK

s

刚刚看了一下，DEC 10年 55的PUT是巨量，可是50的PUT也是巨量啊。解说的这个analyst到底懂不懂啊，没看到这个视频，有没有人能贴一下啊。
如果大户卖55的扑买50的hedge一下，那是在赌大盘根本就不可能跌到550的，这 ...
yingying 发表于 2009-12-10 23:02

from http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/os?s=SPY&m=2010-12

Price Puts
strick   Symbol   Last Change Bid Ask     Volume           Open Int
price

50.00 CYUXX.X 0.43  0.00  N/A N/A          12                     137,796
50.00 YQTXX.X 0.49  0.00  N/A N/A           80                        1,322
50.00 CYUXX.X 0.43  0.00  N/A N/A           12                    137,796

55.00 CYUXC.X 0.60  0.00  N/A N/A          48,577              111,663
55.00 YQTXC.X 0.70  0.00  N/A N/A          3                        387
55.00 CYUXC.X 0.60  0.00  N/A N/A           48,577              111,663
********
It is a little stragnge. I could not understand and explain. Report to FBI.
But I do not believe SPY would drop by 50%, maybe pull back by 5%-10% in 2010. However, to play safe, I may sell my SPY (USD) and XSP (CAD) in 2009, and purchase their call options instead. YMYD

dara

I see what you are saying.  But what I don't understand is:
假定A sell 55 put and buy 50 put at the same time,
那么大的量，说明也有人B大量买55 put 卖 50 put, 那么B不是在bet market will drop to  ...
wuyouren 发表于 2009-12-11 09:28

You do not understand how option works.
If a guy bot $1M $550PUT, he does not really mean SPX will drop to 550.

For example, if in jan. 2010, SPX drops 20% in a very short time to 900,

Then his option could be more than doubled, because the VIX would shot up crazy, option would get much expensive.


Option value has a lot  weight on VIX & Timing.

Plus, $1M is really nothing, it even could not work as a hedge, Period.

soulvirus

偶们不是化敌为友了咩? 偶faint, 开个玩笑都不成哈...

stop attacking me





dara 发表于 2009-12-10 19:34

TXK

You do not understand how option works.
If a guy bot $1M $550PUT, he does not really mean SPX will drop to 550.

For example, if in jan. 2010, SPX drops 20% in a very short time to 900,

Th ...
dara 发表于 2009-12-11 11:03

Your explanation is missing a point. If he did not believe that SPY would drop to $550 by next DEC, and neither someone else believed, then how could he unload his options to realize his profits (when SPY down to $900)? There must be someone believing the SPY down to $550 to take the hot potato. The 550 put buyers must be a big, big bear.

wuyouren

You do not understand how option works.
If a guy bot $1M $550PUT, he does not really mean SPX will drop to 550.

For example, if in jan. 2010, SPX drops 20% in a very short time to 900,

Th ...
dara 发表于 2009-12-11 11:03

要想想...  问题还是谁会买550 PUT?  他完全可以卖或买666的 PUT 呀, 好象稍微有点吸引力呀?...