评价 “美联储”

abaqus

manhattan

Yabooyao, when do you think dollar will stop sliding and have a meaningful bounce? dollar was down in 2003 and 2004 but rebounded at the end of 2004 when FED increased interest rate.

yaobooyao

Yabooyao, when do you think dollar will stop sliding and have a meaningful bounce? dollar was down in 2003 and 2004 but rebounded at the end of 2004 when FED increased interest rate.
manhattan 发表于 2009-11-29 22:41

My original guess (6mth ago) is a possible rate raise  around March 2010,  the guess was based on jobless rate peaked at 9.5%.  Now we all wrong with jobless speed.  So the artificial low rate will be a prolonged period until June 2010 at least.

Some reference we can keep close watch as a hawk:

1. Jobless Rate - when it peaks and confirmed by the flat out or lower down the following period.
This will act as a 3mth early sign of potential talk about FED rate hike.  Other supportive indicators will be CPI, Leading Indicator.

2.  Relative strength(weakness) at historical levels
See $USD index as a measure of USD to a basket of currencies including EURO, GBP, JPY, SWF and etc.  In 2008, the lowest level is around 71~72.  Now $USD is struggling with the 75 level, looks pretty sure that $USD is highly possibly will revisit the 71 level soon.  Then we might see some predictable bounce off the floor level.  Attach is a chart updated on Nov 16.  Zoom in and monitor the EURO-USD exchange rate closely, last year EURO peaked at 1.55ish against USD.

Overall,  all market participants eying on Jobless rate momentum, it's a crucial trigger to those speculators to run off in light of a threat of FED rate hike if Jobless sees improving signs.  How hilarious the world is!

Just my 2 cents.  I observe currency but never trade FX,  it's only my reference to stock trade.  So what I said is very theoretical with zero hands-on experience.

wai-po

23# yaobooyao

nice work..

manhattan

Great analysis, thanks. I still have one puzzle, when dollar index was at lowest level in 2008, the Fed funds rate was at around 3-2%. Now it is 0.25%, only from interest rate differential perspective, dollar should have more room to go down, even lower than 71?

slcgh

coexist

good video

acoust

想发

yaobooyao

Great analysis, thanks. I still have one puzzle, when dollar index was at lowest level in 2008, the Fed funds rate was at around 3-2%. Now it is 0.25%, only from interest rate differential perspective ...
manhattan 发表于 2009-11-29 23:37

Below  71 is quite possible,  in this extreme situation, EURO-USD rate is the max pain which will stop USD drift lower.  The EURO-USD rate is a kind of bottom line EU stands for, last year the rate is 1.52 to 1.55 at this level,  EU's voice will be a crucial sign if EURO-USD marches into the 1.52+ area.  If EU officials complain weak dollar is hurting European economy recovery,  USD might not be able to devalue further in light of political pressure from its peers.

For the interest rate question,  my answer is although last year that time USD interest rate was 2-3%,  ERUO rate was also much higher than the meantime, so with both sides dropped the interest rates, the can off-set each other.  You can use the  delta of interest rates between EURO and USD as a measurement, it's more objective and neutral.

AGA7d

8# yaobooyao

Absolutely - the technological advantage is the most important factor in valuing a tech. company. Innovate or die.

I am not savvy in smart-phones, so I am not gonna say anything about RIMM's death or revival.

mappycarol

文如其人，有深度，加油！

AGA7d

30# yaobooyao
EU complaining is one thing - what can be done is another. With Bernanke, you can hardly get an interest hike or any other monetary discipline.  So the EU complain may fall into deaf ears - what EU can do then? Follow US and print money?

yaobooyao

30# yaobooyao
EU complaining is one thing - what can be done is another. With Bernanke, you can hardly get an interest hike or any other monetary discipline.  So the EU complain may fall into deaf  ...
AGA7d 发表于 2009-11-30 12:06

When EU  complain, that is a warning sign, and quite sure the market will listen to it and take action by taking profit,  the first move is quite possibly  a USD rebound for no reason.  The market will re-assess USD after FED shed some comments regarding EU's complaint on weakening dollar threatening EU recovery.