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发表于 2009-6-4 09:45 AM
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http://www.businesswire.com/port ... 508&newsLang=en
The Commercial Loan Disconnect
In what appears to be a significant number of cases after about a year of negotiations, the crevasse between buyer and seller has yet to be crossed. We agree that many of these loans are not worth 100% of the face amount, and most will not sell for 30% of the face amount either. Unfortunately, we suspect that in the financial institutions were to sell these loans at what could be fetched current in the market; in many cases, the losses that would need to be recorded could ultimately become basically insolvent overnight.
The answer for many institutions -- put some money into the project and become landlord. As such, many of these properties are performing "satisfactorily" now as income properties, but are willing to be sold at a "reasonable" price (whatever that many be).
However, the next big unknown is what the future will hold for commercial property valuation. Currently, commercial property valuations are down 25-30% nationwide. As such, the commercial markets nationally are not expected to recover until mid-2010. This would lead us to believe there will be continued earnings uncertainty over the near-term for institutions such as, but not limited to, Citigroup (NYSE: C), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and Corus Bankshares (Nasdaq: CORS).
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