Going to short this market as a swing trade

luckystar2006

Still holding puts with losses, but I still have a lot of faith for mini-bears at this moment.

源济

sorry

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-3-3 01:47 PM
Still holding puts with losses, but I still have a lot of faith for mini-bears at this moment.

higher it goes, harder it will fall, ur loss is only temporary

if my analysis is correct, downside target 1900

im also in the red with 15% loss on the day,fml

jukifox

sorry 发表于 2016-3-3 01:53 PM
higher it goes, harder it will fall, ur loss is only temporary

if my analysis is correct, down ...

问题是从哪里开始DOWN？

luckystar2006

Planning to hold both PUTs over the weekend as I expect market to pull-back further on Monday/Tuesday.

五谷

lite1067

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-3-4 03:18 PM
Planning to hold both PUTs over the weekend as I expect market to pull-back further on Monday/Tuesda ...

牛B.

yhwang

如果下周平盘怎么办？

风行过

luckystar2006

lite1067 发表于 2016-3-4 04:08 PM
牛B.

It's very likely that I might have to cut loss for the current loss trade by next Monday/Tuesday.  However, that's okay for me to accumulate a loss trade once in a while, considering I made close to 400% of return during last February.

luckystar2006

These suggested market getting ready to pull-back as soon as next Monday.  My trades will become break even if SPX drops ~10pts.  Any further drop will become profits for me

novice_trader

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-3-4 03:18 PM
Planning to hold both PUTs over the weekend as I expect market to pull-back further on Monday/Tuesda ...

有老大背书，我的空仓心安啦！

lite1067

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-3-4 05:30 PM
It's very likely that I might have to cut loss for the current loss trade by next Monday/Tuesday.  ...

keep doing 400% per month, it will be 1,677,721,600% a year !!!
老大威武！！！


i think your puts will make money eventually.

luckystar2006

novice_trader 发表于 2016-3-4 08:15 PM
有老大背书，我的空仓心安啦！

It's a trade with 80% probability of being correct.  Hence, it could be a risky trade if market open with a strong up gap. Speaking of which, it's NOT a good risk management strategy to have both PUT trades at the same time when it's not a 100% certain trade.  That's a problem for a trader to forget basic rules after winning some good bets.  Blah blah blah...........   human always make mistake and I'm a human too.

I think market still has some rooms on the upside next week or the week after.  Then, it will be very interesting to watch how market reacts to MA-10 on monthly chart because market dropped like hell during previous times when it re-tested MA-10

luckystar2006

lite1067 发表于 2016-3-4 10:22 PM
keep doing 400% per month, it will be 1,677,721,600% a year !!!
老大威武！！！

Nice math, but it's impossible lah~~~

There is no doubt that I was quite lucky with my trades in February because if I were at home to trade, instead of traveling, I probably took profits off the table earlier than that by using swing signals.  I guess that might have something to do with visiting some temples while in Taiwan.

luckystar2006

lite1067 发表于 2016-3-4 10:22 PM
keep doing 400% per month, it will be 1,677,721,600% a year !!!
老大威武！！！

BTW, I should not brag about those gains with my gf because she wants to live in a mansion next year (instead of a house that we live in)...  I ended up to have some nightmares last night

Lesson is learned here that we, as male, should never disclose our wallet to our female companions or else............ life is not fun anymore.  She now watches me very close to ensure that I won't have another chance with other pretty girls.  That means no privacy for us.  

tmber

月k线for your option expired in a week?

trend

LZ is brave, confident, decisive and more important it's real money and real trade.

luckystar2006

tmber 发表于 2016-3-5 02:36 PM
月k线for your option expired in a week?

????

That chart has nothing to do with my option trades.  It is meant for a key resistant level that defines bull v.s. bear market.

luckystar2006

trend 发表于 2016-3-5 04:54 PM
LZ is brave, confident, decisive and more important it's real money and real trade. {:8_494 ...

Thanks for your compliment.  However, my gf thinks opposite of your opinion.  She thinks I'm too chicken.

Speaking of which, I've been using few hours (yes, on Saturday afternoon with sunny and warm sky outside) trying to figure out how to trade big starting next week.  I think I'm still too chicken to go in at once with >$100k per trade.  So, my strategy FOR NOW is to split into 2-trade.  First trade is entered during reversal stage (i.e. bottom/top stage) and 2nd trade will be entered during confirmation stage (i.e. trend becomes clear.)  So, what I just did over last few hours is to play around with my signals in order to achieve that goal.  Let's see how that will play out for the next few weeks.