Why I think market hit capitulation level on Friday

coolboy

luckystar2006

lite1067 发表于 2016-1-9 05:55 PM
谢谢分享，周末愉快！

准备死磕！

I'm ready to go in big again either tomorrow or Tuesday once short-term signals confirmed.  What is your strategy?

luckystar2006

lite1067 发表于 2016-1-10 01:15 AM
VOO is not as representative as SPY. And the volume of SPY last Friday was not exceptionally high. b ...

SPY's volume didn't spike huge on last Friday, but NYLOW showed lots of fear.

I think this is the time to be greedy while others are in fear and so, it's a great opportunity right now to buy some 3x ETFs to hold for short-term.

luckystar2006

Green circles show what happened next after new lows > 580.

wreckbeach

跟我的想法不谋而合。

wreckbeach

superxy 发表于 2016-1-9 08:01 PM
$TICK 是往上走的，虽然SPX跌得好深，我认为反弹马上就来了。

wreckbeach

我觉得周五的下跌动能有所衰减，而不是增强。这一波下跌是迷你版的去年八月份下跌，或者说是放大版的去年十一月份、2014年12月底至2015年1月初、2014年11月底至12月初的那几波下跌。

所以，要么下周一就直接回头，要么下周一再小跌一天（以收盘价计）然后回头。

RSI、MACD、STO、Volume等指标都到了SPX该回头的程度了。即使SPX不马上回头，过后再回头也会超过目前点位的高度。

luckystar2006

wreckbeach 发表于 2016-1-10 02:55 PM
跟我的想法不谋而合。

Thanks wreckbeach and I'm really appreciated your inputs on my threads.  I took a little bit of time to prepare this special post for you with high confident level that holding any S&P related ETFs starting this coming Monday is quite a profitable trade.

-----------------

Over last 5-year,  below screenshot shows these are the only occurrences within 80% of S&P 500 stocks trading below 30 level from RSI-5 indicator.   I ran a simple backtest with 5-year data, which shows profitable trades if you buy now and hold for next 60-day

xiaoxiao08

lite1067

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-1-10 12:19 PM
I'm ready to go in big again either tomorrow or Tuesday once short-term signals confirmed.  What i ...

May the force be with you.

过山车

谢谢分享！个人感觉这周以调整为主，下周会跌的比较深，也许下下周一见底。

luckystar2006

Just bought ~30% of my portfolio for SPXL ~2pm.  Will buy some CALLs later.

luckystar2006

I'm now 99% sure that today is the reversal day............. That's just my opinion

babyruth

I think its almost there, VIX crawled back into BB, lower bound turned lower...

luckystar2006

Swing signals are in buy mode now.

babyruth

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-1-11 02:33 PM
Swing signals are in buy mode now.

Thanks for sharing. I think SPY 1h MCAD already turned up, only concern is SPY daily MACD has not turned yet, so it may have whipsaws, lets see...

wnd4

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-1-11 02:33 PM
Swing signals are in buy mode now.

Are all of your signals in buy mode?

luckystar2006

wnd4 发表于 2016-1-11 03:13 PM
Are all of your signals in buy mode?

Blue circle isn't yet, which is why I've NOT gone in to purchase any Call yet.  I prefer SPX to close ~ -15 pts (yes, it's minus sign), which is a good sign for BULLs

luckystar2006

Here is what I'm looking for if SPX closed ~ -15pts, but a big spike up just now erased it.

luckystar2006

Like I predicted before, market would bounce back up once it touched lower BB on monthly chart.