More down ahead???

luckystar2006

lite1067 发表于 2016-1-7 11:53 PM
Lower than today's low?? tomorrow will be the only chance. if tomorrow we open high and close hi ...

My weekly signals are quite bearish.  I won't be surprised to see market revisiting last August's low in the next few weeks.  Maybe, it's just a dead cat bounce for the next few days.

Too tired now.  It's bed time.  Ciao.

luckystar2006

My short-term signals suggest today is EXACTLY bottom.  

However, I prefer to see market testing its previous low first before going in sometime today.  Good luck to all

yanzi

Thanks for your update. Did you buy your first portion?

luckystar2006

Like I said from yesterday, market will re-test its previous low sometimes today/next week.  Indeed, it's testing its previous low right now.  I'll get ready to buy once this intraday signal switching to buy mode.

xiaoxiao08

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-1-8 09:48 AM
My short-term signals suggest today is EXACTLY bottom.  

However, I prefer to see market testing  ...

Thank you for sharing.

luckystar2006

Green arrow is where my entry point was and I purchased up to 40% of my portfolio with Calls.  I plan to hold this trade for short term (not as a swing trade).  

angelecho

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-1-8 12:18 PM
Green arrow is where my entry point was and I purchased up to 40% of my portfolio with Calls.  I pla ...

Thanks a lot for the update. Does your swing trade have a longer holding period than short-term or the other way around?

luckystar2006

angelecho 发表于 2016-1-8 12:39 PM
Thanks a lot for the update. Does your swing trade have a longer holding period than short-term or ...

Swing trades usually last for 1-3 day while short-term trades usually last longer than 3-day and no more than 2-week.

xmbbs

有魄力，上40%的call。

我上了70%svxy, 要套着就拿着了。

luckystar2006

xmbbs 发表于 2016-1-8 01:45 PM
有魄力，上40%的call。

我上了70%svxy, 要套着就拿着了。

Well, I just added another 10% calls with shorter expiration date.  The 40% calls won't expire until January 29th.  The 10% calls will expire until January 15th.

luckystar2006

Just added another 10% calls with January 15th expiration date when market re-tested its previous low.  That is 60% of my portfolio.  

I either drink water (no plain congee) for the rest of this year or having sushi, seafoods, steak and hot pot for dinner every night for the rest of this year

zhao

seafoods

heheboy

hope LZ is right, very brave. I am also very scared now. Usually when i am scared, the bottom is near.

xmbbs

nnd,我这次一定要拿住。

georgeyn

cfayahoo

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-1-8 02:58 PM
Just added another 10% calls with January 15th expiration date when market re-tested its previous lo ...

I added lots of long today and are underwater already . not a fun day !

TNA

This is the third day for me to buy LONG.
I still have half in cash in my account.
Will continue to add LONG if the market keeps going down further....

luckystar2006

This is my first time to share part of my short-term setup (I removed a lot of stuff from this chart so you guys won't feel dizzy while looking at it) on here to demonstrate how I read 1st, 2nd & 3rd wave down, which helps me to explain my another lesson learned today for being too rushed and greedy.

3rd wave pointed up at market open this morning, which gave me lots of confidence to go in big during day-time by using intraday signals.  However, when SPX dropped >15pts during last 30-minute of trading, it pointed down and MACD histogram made lower low.  That was when I had to stop out my calls (but I still have 10% of calls with expiration date of January 29th) to hold over the weekend.....  So, my mistake is that I've to make sure 3rd wave ACTUALLY point upward before going in.  The only way to make sure is to wait until market close.  I hope I won't make this mistake again the future.  Else, I'll end up to eat plain congee for real and sleep on the street if my trading account goes broke

luckystar2006

For those that buy ETFs related today, I don't think it's high risks to hold at this moment.  The only concern I've is for those who hold calls option which expires next week.  I strongly believe market won't drop more than 2-day before a short-term bottom or a sizable rebound kicks in.  However, if SPX drops >50pts in 2-day, then those calls options might not hold any value by next Friday.  Mine won't expire 3-week from now, which I think is safe for now?

luckystar2006

By the way, if my analysis is correct, we should see SPY trading above 194 sometime next week (only valid for within a week).  SPY was 191.92 at market close today