Getting ready to build cases for a bottom

风行过

lite1067 发表于 2015-12-12 10:56 PM
我抢跑了。上周五HY已经capitulation了。

橘子皮

luckystar2006

cfayahoo 发表于 2015-12-12 04:48 PM
老大，fed rate hike decision 前， 股市升还是继续跌啊， 周三如果加息0.25，以后又会咋样？

My swing signal will get triggered on the BUY side tomorrow.  I might buy a tiny Calls to hold for few hours only, but it'll depend on how large Futures gap is at market open tomorrow morning before I make a decision.

Other than that, I've no idea how market will react to Fed's interest rate decision.  My plan is that when my short-term BUY signals kick in before Fed's announcement, what I'll do is go in with 40% of my portfolio to long the market by using 3x leverage ETF like SPXL.  If market reaction on Thursday is positive after Fed announcement, it's likely all my short-term signals will get confirmed, then I'll buy 30% of Calls with expiration date within 3-week.  Until then, I don't want to speculate anything further because I don't want to get any brain damage

luckystar2006

lite1067 发表于 2015-12-12 10:56 PM
我抢跑了。上周五HY已经capitulation了。

Based on my past experience, whenever weekly VIX showed a gain of >40% it usually spike further on the upside next week and drop back down by the end of the week to form a shooting star candle stick which is usually a sign of capitulation.  

lite1067

luckystar2006 发表于 2015-12-13 09:10 PM
Based on my past experience, whenever weekly VIX showed a gain of >40% it usually spike further on ...

有道理。这次很可能重复去年12月底桥段。

luckystar2006

My swing system is in BUY mode right now.  The question is are you dare to long market from here for few hours to a day or two before Fed announcement?

五谷

luckystar2006

Swing buy signal never got confirmed so far this morning.

luckystar2006

While S&P 500 dropped >15pts, I don't see any panic in TRIN.  

luckystar2006

Swing BUY signal looks real this time.  I just bought tiny Calls now to hold for few hrs or until tomorrow.

luckystar2006

Signal from green circles is the another reason why I bought tiny Calls.  Such signal works quite reliable for swing trades.

wnd4

luckystar2006 发表于 2015-12-14 12:01 PM
Swing BUY signal looks real this time.  I just bought tiny Calls now to hold for few hrs or until to ...

Is the Swing buy signal your 2nd stage signal?

jingriver

可以上货了。

luckystar2006

My tiny calls position is now +30% in the money and I'm still holding.  I believe more intraday higher high ahead after any small pull-back.  Either I make few grants or bring home with an empty pocket today

georgeyn

老大的信号非常准哟，可没胆量上阿

luckystar2006

wnd4 发表于 2015-12-14 12:38 PM
Is the Swing buy signal your 2nd stage signal?

NO and I don't mix short-term signals with swing signals.  That said, my stage 2 is almost there, but not exactly there yet.  However, stage 3 seems to get confirmed soon.  Let's wait and see.  

luckystar2006

georgeyn 发表于 2015-12-14 12:44 PM
老大的信号非常准哟，可没胆量上阿

I understand.  A lot of people are anxious and waiting for Fed's decision on this Wednesday.  Speaking of which, I only use <5% of my portfolio to purchase this tiny Calls for swing trade which is the amount I won't get emotional if it's a loss trade.  If I go in with 100% of my portfolio, I could have made almost six figures income right now.  But I'm so chicken to do it and I'll never do it for the rest of my life.  

luckystar2006

While market is in red, TRIN & VIX are also in red.  Such signs are usually bullish for the market.  Still holding my CALLs here

luckystar2006

By the way, I see a lot of dangers everywhere for short-term bears.  In my opinions, it's quite risky to hold onto shorts at this stage.

luckystar2006

I just added in another 5% of Calls to my portfolio.