Dumb money vs. smart money

princess-yuan

我在看，谢谢，不在微信群里，所以只能在这里看，请更新下

wyemlyy

Reading as well. Very helpful!

benmao

我也在看，很有用，请继续。谢谢！

lilili

csw2002 发表于 2015-9-23 09:46 PM
Final adjusted OEX PCR is 0.79 and it is mild bullish. No change to SH, SDS or SPXU. I am still bull ...

i dont have wechat nr, so highliy appreciated if u keep updating here. thx

acoust

csw2002

Another 56 million inflow into SH today, again taking both shares outstanding and asset under management to all time high. Significantly, there are also outflows from SDS and SPXU. With bullish final OEX PCR at 0.51, and I think we will see some significant gains over the next few days.

lite1067

csw2002 发表于 2015-9-24 09:08 PM
Another 56 million inflow into SH today, again taking both shares outstanding and asset under manage ...

xiaoxiao08

thanks very much.

csw2002

Final adjusted oex pcr closed at 1.46 which is neutral. Sh and sds saw no change. Spxu saw a small outflow. I still think the conditions favour the bull.

lanz

csw2002

Final adjusted OEX PCR at 0.56 - it's in buy territory. SH saw another 48 millions of new shorts - taking total new shorts since last Thursday to over 100 millions - also in buy territory.

lite1067

csw2002 发表于 2015-9-28 11:17 PM
Final adjusted OEX PCR at 0.56 - it's in buy territory. SH saw another 48 millions of new shorts - t ...

Interesting to see if the smart or dumb money will work out for this round.

csw2002

lite1067 发表于 2015-9-29 12:42 AM
Interesting to see if the smart or dumb money will work out for this round.

In Aug, smart money was bullish until 21st Aug when it went full tilt short but inflow into SH was minimal. This time, OEX traders continue to stay long and SH continues to see inflow. I favour the smart money - but the buy could be come in after another 50 points drop.

lite1067

csw2002 发表于 2015-9-29 12:05 AM
In Aug, smart money was bullish until 21st Aug when it went full tilt short but inflow into SH was ...

thanks.

though I don't think we will have another 50 pts drop before a meaningful bounce first.

csw2002

Final adjusted Oex pcr is at 0 .66, in buy territory. Sh saw no change. Sds and spxu both saw outflows. So far, this looks like a bottom to me.

lite1067

K! dumb money becomes so brave - another 350K new shares today.

csw2002

lite1067 发表于 2015-9-30 08:50 PM
K! dumb money becomes so brave - another 350K new shares today.

That's normal. If you check the previous up cycles, dumb money was fighting the uptrend well after the bottoms were in. When they start to cover en mass, you need to watch out for a top.

Yesterday saw 8 million dollars inflow into SH, no change to SPXU and SDS. OEX PCR closed at 1.13, neutral. I am still bullish, and look to add to my long on dips.

csw2002

OEX PCR closed at 1.1 and there is no change SH, SDS and SPXU. I did add long on weakness with limit order per yesterday's post. However, I am getting a bit uncomfortable with the long position because the lack of momentum for bulls which should have been in place if we have had an important bottom. I will probably trim the long a bit.

lite1067

csw2002 发表于 2015-10-1 07:41 PM
OEX PCR closed at 1.1 and there is no change SH, SDS and SPXU. I did add long on weakness with limit ...

Today is a retest of yesterday's intra-day low. I am very bullish (maybe for another day). we are gonna see another huge up day.

csw2002

lite1067 发表于 2015-10-1 09:07 PM
Today is a retest of yesterday's intra-day low. I am very bullish (maybe for another day). we ar ...

I hope you weren't shaked out by post nfp decline.

For today, final oex pcr closed at 1.08, no signal. There is no change to sh, sds and spxu. Dumb short is not believing in the rally and it is contrarian bullish. I trimmed my long during the asian session and added back myblong per my plan on nfp weakness.

I expect a dip (possibly 10 to 15 spx points gap down) on monday that will be bought. Will again add on weakness if it happens.