本帖最后由 ddd 于 2012-12-26 09:44 AM 编辑
O8 has figured out a long while ago that the fiscal cliff, if has to happen, is so much better then all of other alternatives with the republican congress. The tax increase : spending cuts is nearly 4:1 under fiscal cliff scenario.
That's also why I think the republicans have no real options at their hands, but to satisfy O8, but will only do so at the very last moment before the cliff. Fiscal Cliff will not happen.
To translate that into the market language, the market will not drop far before 12/31, and will drop sharply on 12/31 and then bounce back sharply thereafter. |