Forex/Futures ST for Week 10/07 - 10/12

greenback

The first question I have is why bonds are not confirming this pull down in stocks. What has changed?

greenback

However, EURO is clearly consistent with indices ... it now risks breaking down from the double top!

greenback

AUD broke down earliear, but that was due to the rate cut ... it might have formed a (small) double bottom, apparently we need to see a higher high, i.e. breakout to confirm the pattern.

greenback

As we predicted, CL indeed has bottomed and formed a double bottom ... it's time to long it ...

greenback

GC remains to be bullish ... still above the 50% of the trading range ...

greenback

ES also risk breaking down as EURO ... so the pullback is still originated in the fxxking EURO zone.

MFTHT

greenback 发表于 2012-10-9 11:02 PM
The first question I have is why bonds are not confirming this pull down in stocks. What has changed ...

确实非常奇怪。ZB昨天给了向下的信号，这也是我今早没有及时平出ES的原因之一， 直到ES的2小时图给了明确的向下信号，我才止损ES。现在我依然看空ZB，但ES也是向下的。也许是有一个在说谎？要么是时间框架不同：我觉得ES只是短期跌，而ZB则是中期跌。

greenback

MFTHT 发表于 2012-10-9 11:31 PM
确实非常奇怪。ZB昨天给了向下的信号，这也是我今早没有及时平出ES的原因之一， 直到ES的2小时图给了明确 ...

I'm just guessing ... maybe MM's want to scare the European politicians by selling EUROs and PIIGS bonds hard in the next week so they would agree to the proposed bailout.

MFTHT

MFTHT 发表于 2012-10-9 10:20 AM
wk. 说着话就下破了，我的ES浪1440出手了， 赔10pts. 刚刚又空在1440，止损1452，目标1410附近. 希望不 ...

设定止损1339.75， 止赢1325. 吸取教训，保住本金。
压力：

austinjoe

MFTHT 发表于 2012-10-10 07:49 AM
设定止损1339.75， 止赢1325. 吸取教训，保住本金。
压力：

My 2 cents -- ES could use 1437 for stop loss. If it could could bot bounce back to touch 1436.5, then it's heading to 1424.

MFTHT

austinjoe 发表于 2012-10-10 11:27 AM
My 2 cents -- ES could use 1437 for stop loss. If it could could bot bounce back to touch 1436.5,  ...

多谢老大提醒。看15分钟图，ES前高点在1337.75，让2个点，所以设在1339.75了。因为是ST，所以我的止损点位一般让2～3点。

这里太冷清了，欢迎老大常来。

MFTHT

1427卡窝了。因为中期仍然看多，俺就不恋战了。

austinjoe

MFTHT 发表于 2012-10-10 10:38 AM
1427卡窝了。因为中期仍然看多，俺就不恋战了。

Cash out is always right thing to do :-o)

Would you please put more details on why "因为中期仍然看多"?

MFTHT

austinjoe 发表于 2012-10-10 01:25 PM
Cash out is always right thing to do :-o)

Would you please put more details on why "因为中期仍然 ...

看17#， 18#图，中午以前一直在上升轨道内，所以当时说中期看多，当然，现在SPX的上升轨道下轨好像破了，但ES的还好，我准备在ES的下轨处摆地铺，1410附近。1398会Average down一次，1392全割掉，到时等下面中间那个上升轨道，1370再摆地铺？
到时再说吧，现在掉的像飞刀，已经后悔卡窝早了，呵呵。

MFTHT

austinjoe 发表于 2012-10-10 01:25 PM
Cash out is always right thing to do :-o)

Would you please put more details on why "因为中期仍然 ...

老兄能不能谈谈你对中短期的看法，我先谢谢啦。
感觉你现在在做空。

austinjoe

MFTHT 发表于 2012-10-10 03:20 PM
老兄能不能谈谈你对中短期的看法，我先谢谢啦。
感觉你现在在做空。

I'm a 缠论 student. It's not a good way to try to predict market's direction. However, 缠论 does provide you the best choice for market's next step based on its past track. Following is what I made a comments on 09/25/2012 night for a Hutong老大's market view that saying market is face 中期顶:

"My reading: monthly and weekly is bearish. Daily shows short term up chance in next 1-3 days -- which is a good short entry point, this match what CHAN theory.

Monthly we are in 背驰段 from 03/2009 till now compare to 10/2002 to 10/2007. Weekly in 背驰段 as well from 10/2011 till today vs 03/2009 -- 04/2010. Daily  Weekly in 背驰段 also, 06/04/2012 -- today VS 10/04/2011 -- 04/02/2012. Details for this up trend from 06/04/2012, it's 2 中枢 30Min. 1st 中枢 [1309--1335], 2nd 中枢 is [1398,1416]. Now I'm looking closely on strength 07/24/2012 (1329.24) -- 08/21/2012 (1
26.68) vs 09/04/2012 (1396.56) till now, so far we only get 09/14/2012 1474.51, which is much weaker than previous 100 point SPX rise. If SPX touch 1439.15 in next few days before bouncing up, the 3rd 30Min 中枢 will build up, which is rear for an up trend in this level - and we can expect market will swing around 1440 to finish topping process."

I know that a picture is better than a thousand words. I'll make some screenshots tonight to post on the main board.

MFTHT

austinjoe 发表于 2012-10-10 09:07 PM
I'm a 缠论 student. It's not a good way to try to predict market's direction. However, 缠论 does ...

对老大的缠论体系不太明白，不过读完后感觉你是长期中期都认为是顶部形成过程中，对于这点，我并不反对。因为我认为的中期涨势包括在后面走一个熊旗（涨势），不超过前高下来，如此就形成一个中期顶。长期顶需要很长的时间构筑。我涉入股市时间太短，正在完善自己的系统，与老大对话，利于我的成长和思考。正是由于今天你的提问，我才仔细的考虑自己的思路，发现中期看多确实有点问题。所以撤了1412的地雷单（尽管它本身就是一个papertrading）。边走边看吧，现在需要等待，等着以后如果熊旗破了稳稳做空，或者确实上破压力后再跳进去做多。
不知缠论如何运作，但对我自己的均线野鸡系统，是不能猜顶或猜底的。

多谢老大，等着在主板看你的美图。

austinjoe

MFTHT 发表于 2012-10-10 08:18 PM
对老大的缠论体系不太明白，不过读完后感觉你是长期中期都认为是顶部形成过程中，对于这点，我并不反对。 ...

We both are the student of the market. 缠论体系 gives you a way to read the market, but it could not predict it except on some special condition -- like on 10/05/2012 SPX could not reach 1474 to end the 06/04/2012 上涨趋势. Even SPX keep rise above 1474.51, as long as MACD could not show enough strength, the results is the same, SPX will drop at least 1426 :--o)

Now we wtach how market grow itself -- the down trend start from 1F, to 5F, to 30F which is the same level as 06/04 up trend.

MFTHT

austinjoe 发表于 2012-10-11 01:17 AM
We both are the student of the market. 缠论体系 gives you a way to read the market, but it could n ...

俺缠论基础是零，说实话，没有全看懂啊。晚上再琢磨琢磨。多谢老大。老大是ST还是DT, 到底到顶时来喊喊。

MFTHT

注意KC