F

水明善

很早就看这个股票了，但没动。最大的问题是它和其他汽车公司比，到底哪里牛，未来的market share会提高吗？

Diffusion

水明善 发表于 2012-9-5 04:51 PM
很早就看这个股票了，但没动。最大的问题是它和其他汽车公司比，到底哪里牛，未来的market share会提高吗？

Pure value play, 估值太低。F可能会gain a little bit market share, but the winner will be Toyota & Honda这些被海啸影响过的公司。

正好展开说说，FA可以看两个方面
1. Valuation, low valuation sometimes are good
2. Growth, high growth sometimes are good

当然估值低的成长型公司是最好的。但是一般很难有这样的机会。如果其中一方面很好，也可以尝试。我选F就是因为1。

当时惘然

Thank you for Diffusion's HB.
I think GM is better than F, not recommendation, just FA info.

P/E of F is 2.18 as today's close price, but forwarding P/E is 6.42;
P/E of GM is 7.75, but forwarding P/E is 5.47 .
from the difference of PEG, we should see the difference...

当时惘然

The risk of bankruptcy. F had more debt, but GM got no debt. 'cause this is new GM, reload after last BK.
US government won't allow GM BK again, at least within 3-5 years, so, risk of BK is almost " 0 " ...

当时惘然

I think GM is slight better than F, because, GM is 20+ stock, F is 10- stock, mutual fund could not put low price stocks into their portofolio ...

BTW, if US government wanna to creat more jobs, they will beat toyota, honda, hunydai again...
Auto industry is so important to US...

水明善

Diffusion 发表于 2012-9-5 06:50 PM
Pure value play, 估值太低。F可能会gain a little bit market share, but the winner will be Toyota &  ...

谢谢你的指点。

Diffusion

当时惘然 发表于 2012-9-5 08:14 PM
I think GM is slight better than F, because, GM is 20+ stock, F is 10- stock, mutual fund could not  ...

Thanks. All good discussion. Let's continue.

P/E of F is 2.18 as today's close price, but forwarding P/E is 6.42;
P/E of GM is 7.75, but forwarding P/E is 5.47 .
from the difference of PEG, we should see the difference...

Since neither F nor GM is growth company, I'd discount PEG a little bit. And forward P/E is based on consensus expectation of analysts, so I'd also like to discount it a little bit.

The risk of bankruptcy. F had more debt, but GM got no debt. 'cause this is new GM, reload after last BK.
US government won't allow GM BK again, at least within 3-5 years, so, risk of BK is almost " 0 " ...

On this one I think F and GM get the same score. F is not likely to bankrupt, either, as discussed before.

I think GM is slight better than F, because, GM is 20+ stock, F is 10- stock, mutual fund could not put low price stocks into their portofolio ...

I heard the cut off is $5. Anyway this is a little bit speculative. Some fund review portfolio every once a while, so it may hold something say $3 or $4 for a while before dumping it. And the $5 cut off only applies to mutual fund. Hedge fund are kind of free.

BTW, if US government wanna to creat more jobs, they will beat toyota, honda, hunydai again...
Auto industry is so important to US...

I'd like to base my analysis on fact, not speculation, so couldn't comment on this.

Sometime finding a good investment is to find a stock miss-priced by the market. I think in this case, F is miss-priced by the market because people worried too much about its debt, which, in this low interest environment, may not be a bad thing. On the other hand, GM is simply boring, everything about it is just average. So I'm more interested in F.

Admittedly GM's chart looks better. But that's TA.

Diffusion

水明善 发表于 2012-9-5 10:49 PM
谢谢你的指点。

不客气

当时惘然

FA first.
I compared F with GM, not only on P/E, PEG, debt/cash

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=F+Competitors

but also on EBITDA, Revenue,P/S.

This season F's net income is not constant result.

I used TA to prove it ....


Anyway, purly discussed with you.
I do not like F & GM indeed ... ...

Diffusion

当时惘然 发表于 2012-9-5 11:57 PM
FA first.
I compared F with GM, not only on P/E, PEG, debt/cash

Just share some experience about how to do FA.

Numbers won't lie, but numbers can be misleading. Low valuation can be good, or bad. It is good when it is caused by misunderstanding. But it can also be bad. Like RIMM. It's dirt cheap, but kept falling. Why? Because it's earning power is shrinking. This quarter you buy it at P/E 5 with price at $10 and earnings at $2, next quarter its earnings shrink to $1, and the price will be $5. It's still dirt cheap, but you lose 50%.

High growth could be good, or bad. It is good when it is organic. It is bad when it's not. Some company's growth is fabulous, simply because they spend a lot of money on marketing. When they burn out all the cash and cannot do aggressive marketing, the growth will collapse, so will its price.

So I'd suggest always starting at understanding the business. Then look at numbers. Then find possible pitfalls behind the numbers. Then you may end up with something solid.

Please don't feel bad if you think I'm trying to lecture you. I'm not. I just want to share some experience which costed me a lot of money. If you already know it, good for you. And any further discussion is always welcome.

天地

Diffusion

天地 发表于 2012-9-6 12:42 AM

欢迎天地mm常来坐坐。

Diffusion

F我打算套些利。剩下的设个break even stop win。大家自己的仓位自己拿主意吧。

水明善

Just add some more comments for F:

Usually I don't like such industry with heavy PPE, F is not a leader in this industry too, but I do agree with you the valuation is attractive for F.
I prefer to choose stocks with less PPE + some unique advantages + low price, my problem is I can't hold for long time. When I got some profit / loss, I will flee away...

How do you look at ARMH? My concern is I have no professional knowledge about this industry, but I do like this business and its business model.

Diffusion

水明善 发表于 2012-9-6 03:30 PM
Just add some more comments for F:

Usually I don't like such industry with heavy PPE, F is not a  ...

ARMH正好是你喜欢的类型。大概看了一下，pure growth play. 但是从这张图上看，revenue growth deteriorating. 不是很看好。



看了下图，过去两年在22-32之间震荡。可能要突破了才好玩。Just my 2c.

水明善

Diffusion 发表于 2012-9-6 05:36 PM
ARMH正好是你喜欢的类型。大概看了一下，pure growth play. 但是从这张图上看，revenue growth deteriora ...

谢谢你花这么多时间查资料，看图并回复!!!
revenue deterioration is a serious concern. I need to re-think about it.

Diffusion

水明善 发表于 2012-9-6 05:33 PM
谢谢你花这么多时间查资料，看图并回复!!!
revenue deterioration is a serious concern. I need to re- ...

不客气，做很多功课才能有一两个好股票。所以多做一个也没啥，万一碰上好的了呢。

水明善

Diffusion 发表于 2012-9-6 06:39 PM
不客气，做很多功课才能有一两个好股票。所以多做一个也没啥，万一碰上好的了呢。

呵呵，好心态！
你通常到哪拿这些信息呢？

Diffusion

水明善 发表于 2012-9-6 05:46 PM
呵呵，好心态！
你通常到哪拿这些信息呢？

portfolio123.com

$45/mo

free services很难查到历史数据，所以还是i得花点钱才行。

水明善

Diffusion 发表于 2012-9-6 06:49 PM
portfolio123.com

$45/mo

噢， 我从来不知道这个网站， 谢谢你！我是在S&P上找的， 有数据，但图很少。