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[放炮] AAPL

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-10-24 07:57 AM | 显示全部楼层


本帖最后由 jamesmith 于 2012-10-24 08:00 AM 编辑
dividend_growth 发表于 2012-10-24 04:03 AM
苹果你就放心的买,如果怕宏观面不行就烧微软对冲。

微软的瘟八,是个自掘坟墓的东东。


yes, buy the dip on Apple. Yesterday's announcement shows that it is ahead of competition. Fusion drive is a better solution than Intel's flash caching, and the new iMac is simply a beautiful product.

iPad mini's price might be a bit high compared to other 7 inches, but this is typical for Apple. Low prices and discounts are like drugs, when customers get use to them, they will never pay premium price. That's why Tiffany rarely goes on sale, and LV's premium products don't go on sale.

Apple will have record breaking sales figure in this holiday season.

I haven't try out MS Surface yet...early reviews are positive though...some people believe surface is the biggest threat to Apple dominating post-pc market...it comes with Microsoft Office, which is very useful to business users...
Microsoft realizes that it has to change, mobile computing/tablet market will be the focus for next 5 years.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-10-25 01:57 PM | 显示全部楼层
Philip Elmer-Dewitt has put together his list of analyst predictions ahead of Apple's quarterly earnings report this afternoon. The list includes estimates from 36 analysts: 16 "independent" and 20 "institutional" who work for large investment houses or research organizations.

NewImage40.png

As usual, the independents are much more bullish than the institutional analysts. The independent consensus expects earnings per share (EPS) of $9.66 on revenue of $37.23 billion. The institutional consensus is EPS of $8.75 on $35.51 billion in revenue. This is a 5% difference on revenue and a 10% difference on EPS, a smaller gap than we've seen in recent quarters.

Last quarter the company earned $8.8 billion in profit on revenue of $35 billion. For this quarter, Apple issued guidance of $34 billion in revenue with profits of $7.65 per share. The company typically exceeds its guidance by a significant margin.

Apple will announce its earnings for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2012 (third calendar quarter of 2012) and host a conference call regarding the release this afternoon at 5:00 PM Eastern / 2:00 PM Pacific. The earnings release itself typically comes in around 4:30 PM Eastern. MacRumors will have live coverage of the proceedings.

Though the September quarter is the final quarter of Apple's fiscal year, AllThingsD quotes JP Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz:
"Our view is that September quarter numbers do not matter," J.P. Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz said in a Wednesday research note to clients. "Apple can miss or beat. It does not matter. … In our view, the two important iPhone and iPad launches set the stage for big numbers to be reported in late January 2013 as relates to December quarter results."

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-10-25 01:58 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 jamesmith 于 2012-10-25 02:01 PM 编辑

Hehe...the best situation will be Apple misses, drop alot, creating a opportunity to load even more Apple
In any case, buy Apple during this dip.

We can look at US carrier's ER to have some idea:

Sprint recorded approximately 1.5 million iPhone sales in the third quarter with 40 percent representing new customers.

Notably, the 4.7 million iPhone activations represented roughly 77% of AT&T's total smartphone sales of 6.1 million during the quarter, showing that Apple continues to dominate AT&T's smartphone customer base. And with smartphones overall rising to account for 81% of AT&T's sales on a postpaid basis, the iPhone represented 62% of AT&T's sales of all phones (smartphones and feature phones) to those customers.

In a conference call following the earnings release, Verizon revealed that it activated 3.1 million iPhones during the quarter, representing approximately 46% of its total smartphone activations of 6.8 million. The iPhone activation number was up from 2.7 million in the previous quarter that saw Apple garnering a similar 45% share of Verizon's smartphone activations.
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发表于 2012-10-25 02:44 PM | 显示全部楼层
jamesmith 发表于 2012-10-25 02:58 PM
Hehe...the best situation will be Apple misses, drop alot, creating a opportunity to load even more  ...

the dip after ER is a chance to buy, agree.

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发表于 2012-10-25 02:58 PM | 显示全部楼层
要封盘了。

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发表于 2012-10-25 03:13 PM | 显示全部楼层
jamesmith 发表于 2012-10-25 01:58 PM
Hehe...the best situation will be Apple misses, drop alot, creating a opportunity to load even more  ...

laoda, you wrote all this yourself? i admire your english.

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-10-25 03:45 PM | 显示全部楼层
Earning is out: http://investor.apple.com/secfil ... 5506&CIK=320193

Revenue: 36.97 Billion
Net Income: 8.223 Billion
Diluted EPS : 8.67
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发表于 2012-10-25 03:46 PM | 显示全部楼层
kao, that is below expected, i guess Mm will slash aapl tomororw as well as the market....bull gets slaughtered.

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-10-25 03:50 PM | 显示全部楼层
heheboy 发表于 2012-10-25 03:46 PM
kao, that is below expected, i guess Mm will slash aapl tomororw as well as the market....bull gets  ...

If that's the case, it would be good oppotunty to buy apple.

$8.76 is 23% increase year over year. This is insane given Apple's size.
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发表于 2012-10-27 02:33 AM | 显示全部楼层
微软最近比AAPL还衰。

不过那个Surface看样子卖的还行,这个价为再烧MSFT不合适了。
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发表于 2012-10-27 03:50 AM | 显示全部楼层
dividend_growth 发表于 2012-10-27 02:33 AM
微软最近比AAPL还衰。

不过那个Surface看样子卖的还行,这个价为再烧MSFT不合适了。

有可能是game changer.
工作,娱乐两用。很有前途。
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发表于 2012-10-27 08:10 AM | 显示全部楼层
hellofriend 发表于 2012-10-27 03:50 AM
有可能是game changer.
工作,娱乐两用。很有前途。

严重缺乏应用,像1985年时的Mac。
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发表于 2012-10-27 09:35 AM | 显示全部楼层
  thank for the analysis!

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-10-27 10:22 AM | 显示全部楼层
vanbj 发表于 2012-10-27 09:35 AM
thank for the analysis!

http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod ... 7&fromuid=11178

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发表于 2012-10-27 11:08 AM | 显示全部楼层
jamesmith 发表于 2012-10-27 10:22 AM
http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=184775&pid=1926637&fromuid=11178


不知道华尔街闹哪出。等选举之后吧
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-10-30 07:58 AM | 显示全部楼层
Apple today published a press release announcing a major management restructuring for its executive team. Among the biggest changes are the immediate departure of retail chief John Browett and a 2013 exit for iOS chief Scott Forstall.

As part of the restructuring, Jony Ive, Bob Mansfield, Eddy Cue, and Craig Federighi are all taking on increased responsibilities.

- Jony Ive will take over leadership of Human Interface teams in addition to his role as head on Industrial Design.

- Eddy Cue will take over responsibility for Siri and Maps, consolidating online services under one unit. Cue was promoted just over a year ago to Senior Vice President for Internet Software and Services. He played a prominent role in the educational announcement earlier this year, and now has control of two of Apple's most prominent new iOS features.

- Craig Federighi will lead both the iOS and OS X teams. Earlier this year, he was promoted to Senior Vice President of Mac Software Engineering. Now, he gains the iOS team that was formerly under Scott Forstall.

- Bob Mansfield will lead a new "Technologies" group focused on innovation in wireless technology and semiconductors. Earlier this year, Apple announced that Mansfield would be retiring, but several months later announced he would instead be staying at the company. Later, it leaked that Tim Cook had faced an "insurrection" after Mansfield announced his retirement, and Cook gave him an extremely generous benefits package to stay at the company. It seems that Mansfield will be staying at the company for the foreseeable future.

Scott Forstall, the current SVP of iOS Software, is leaving the company next year. In the meantime, he will serve as an advisor to Tim Cook. Forstall was once considered a possible candidate to replace Steve Jobs as CEO, but more recently has come under fire for missteps regarding Apple's new mapping software and the continued impression that Siri is not ready for prime time. Also, Forstall was considered responsible for the skeuomorphic direction that Apple's iOS software had been taking recently. With Jony Ive taking over Human Interface teams, there could be more consistency coming to Apple's user interfaces across the company.

On the retail side, Senior Vice President of Retail John Browett is stepping down effective immediately, with the retail team reporting directly to Tim Cook on an interim basis. A search for a successor is underway.

John Browett raised some eyebrows when he was hired earlier this year. It is assumed that Browett was behind some staff cutbacks at the retail level and an increased focus on profitability at the expense, some say, of Apple's excellent customer service.

Update: Apple has updated its Leadership webpage removing Browett and Forstall, while adding the additional responsibilities for Ive, Cue, Mansfield, and Federighi.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-11-6 02:04 PM | 显示全部楼层

MBIA

新款产品iPad mini和第四代正常尺寸iPad在发布后的三天内销量达到300万部
http://www.hutong9.net/forum.php ... 6&fromuid=11178

iSupply tear down estimated low end iPad mini cost $198, if this is correct, profit margin is 39.92%
2012-11-05_iPad-mini1.jpg

2012-11-05_iPad-mini2.jpg
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发表于 2012-11-7 05:15 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2012-11-7 05:42 PM | 显示全部楼层
suddenly everyone so bearish about AAPL
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发表于 2012-11-7 06:28 PM | 显示全部楼层
iPad Mini只能算战术层面的东西,花街担心的是老乔死后,果子可持续发展的能力,介个属战
略层面了,不是小打小闹可以解决的
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