本帖最后由 ddd 于 2012-5-28 13:38 编辑
Use this PDF while following the presentation
Video Notes. Anyone doubt the upside?
main story to come
hottest exploration on planet
no wells for 20 years.
north....... 6bn in Yemen,
West........6bn in Uganda
East Mozambique 24bn
Island of no activity
All systems geology interconnected
Identical geology but 10x size
1 more rig signed Ethiopia
1 more Kenya
4 in total this year.
Financing end of year
more +ve results first
Tullow worlds best drill
Lundin 2nd
TLW 88% success
De risked basin on N1
8 identical prospects to N1
N1 20% chance, now derisked the remainder are 60-70%
3 way dip. Didn't like but TLW said do it as their expertise is there.
TLW 17m pre drill net expected.
actually found greater than 100m net pay in one section
27m found by TLW in Uganda=15,000bopd We have 4 x that and expect better results.
drilled on since. In primary objective now.
update next month. Encouraged so far but need to run logs.
wildly above expectations.
best in Uganda was 44m of net.
this one twice as thick.
TLW saying Kenya should be 2x size of Uganda but could be 5x!
close to pipeline volume.
not allowed to say volumes until 3rd party
originally thought 50mn for 17m we have 6x that!
pipeline volume needs to be 250,000,000 barrels........
All string of pearls look as good if not better than N1
80 leads!!!!!!!!!!
South OMO september
If Ethiopia hits start thinking about whole basin being productive and big numbers.
creta rift....... same as Sudan
very similar geology.
more risky..... Pai Pai. 3 dry holes.
200ft of live oil staining. thought big oil fields existed previously.
looking for old, unfaulted structure
risky but if works 12 more prospects it confirms
if pai pai derisks then 750,000,000 looks good
Cnooc 2.5tcf. no one cares. KH says is as 77% of energy is from burning wood!
no gas value in stock at minute
jurassic
doesn't understand HRN sp price
rumours. hard to manage expectations
1 old well Darin 1.
S1 found nice sandstones 12m of pay
No test yet.
until tested no idea.
75 to 80% chance of flowing
no testing equip on site
paperwork to import charges to allow testing
75 to 100mn barrels. reviewed but HAVE TO FLOW FIRST
if 100mn and another on 2nd then commercial
"encouraged"
surprised by sp reaction
NEED TO FLOW
proud of Lundin and community work. higher than standard
why here
multi billion barrels
3rd party report...........
misses a few blocks.
Oil number could double. being re done soon
11.5bn is big. x WI 5bn net.
ALL multi bn barrels targets expect a few
20% chance of success risk = 1 bn barrels x $4.23 per barrel. Kenya would be 6 or 7$
4.5bn $ of risk value
Merril Lynch said ￡5.5bn to TLW.
lots of history of growth.
SNM struggle. Hard geology. politics is bad but geology also.
good track record.
Involved in all Lundin's oilies and AOI is best so far. N1 is best well he has ever drilled. TLW say it is their best ever
10 - 12 drills a year
4 rigs
built and sell.......
AOI stay in and produce!
not afraid of producing oil now.
financing end of this year beginning next
being offered money now but declining it.
any bad news and Lundin will lend
Q's
Mali surrendered. Bad geology and worse politics
4 rigs. 2 x sax, weatherford not decided on last one.
low cost pakistani well.
a lot of approaches from majors
don't want to be taken out.
farming out..... could come in future
100% Blocks. marketing them...... cash front end. considering but no news
Nogal 2 problems. held by conoco. they say still claims. govt tried to force them to come in. conoco said no.
southern block..... if oil conoco may well try to come for it.
political claim also
next puntland step..... drill jesoma and then test. otherwise rig back and test shabeel.
if 1 or both flows keep rig in country maybe drill appraisal or another hole
investor relations monitors......
stay off BB's. Sophia is the boy:)
"hate production"Q. so convinced sold my house in Vanc and moving to Nairobi
no frontiers left
good terms. better than world average
norway model is goal
3 - 5 year production timescale
madagascar...... interesting.
mt |
狗仔卡
发表于 2012-5-14 12:00 AM
