Looking Forward

sc168 · 发表于 2011-10-15 02:15 PM

Thanks

Masktear · 发表于 2011-10-15 02:33 PM

Masktear · 发表于 2011-10-15 02:36 PM

"As I've pointed out today at the intraday discussions, I think the rally so far is largely caused by short covering,"
What is the supporting evidence? Is it the price-volume divergence?

ddd · 发表于 2011-10-15 03:01 PM

The price-volume is not a concern. A robust and lasting rally is often associated with low and trending down volume, before turning around of course.

My conclusion is based mostly from traders / investors psychology point of view. The majority investors / traders would not be able to adjust their sentiment so quickly two weeks ago. And this not-stop rally has been so sharp that it left little room for "good entry point". From everyone I personally know that has been the case. And just about everyone on CNBC last week were bitching about the rally and saying it has to come down - my take was that they missed the board.

QWE · 发表于 2011-10-15 03:20 PM

ddd 发表于 2011-10-15 16:01
The price-volume is not a concern. A robust and lasting rally is often associated with low and trend ...

从TA角度看，这个反转是很经典的，我9月中就已经注意到并通知HT这个大反转的可能，而且一直实时进行分析，抄到了抓到了这个中期底。不过反转后的上涨速度之快，的确超过我的预期，本来我预计要经过1个月的上涨才能达到1220之上，结果很快就涨到位置了。这个快速上涨，又给后市带来了不确定性。我目前还只能观望，难以准确认定

atrader · 发表于 2011-10-15 03:32 PM

Bencat · 发表于 2011-10-15 03:57 PM

Agree, a potentially short squeeze is on the way! scare bears to death.

navybean · 发表于 2011-10-15 03:58 PM

Thanks

aimei · 发表于 2011-10-15 06:53 PM

yes123 · 发表于 2011-10-15 10:20 PM

tang1688 · 发表于 2011-10-15 10:27 PM

mengtt · 发表于 2011-10-16 12:46 AM

ddd · 发表于 2011-10-16 06:13 PM

SPX的short position接近历史高哈，这就是本rally的燃料。

ddd · 发表于 2011-10-16 06:21 PM

再看看20-day SPX BTO Calls and Puts volumes:

Below is a chart showing the average BTO calls and puts over the last 20 trading days. It shows a dramatic drop-off in BTO calls, and at the same time, a dramatic increase in BTO puts. In other words, fund managers are no longer hedging long equity exposure, and instead may actually be shorting the market, and buying VIX puts to hedge their short positions.

ddd · 发表于 2011-10-16 06:24 PM

TopTen · 发表于 2011-10-16 06:58 PM

ddd 发表于 2011-10-16 19:24

看图 MM要杀PUT

silicon_beaver · 发表于 2011-10-16 07:10 PM

ddd 发表于 2011-10-16 15:24

C/P ratio becomes under one (1) this week, so MM expect a pullback.

Billyboy · 发表于 2011-10-16 07:17 PM

silicon_beaver · 发表于 2011-10-16 07:18 PM

ok. I looked the last three year SPY weekly chart. C/P ratio is not strongly-correlated with the C/P ratio.
So C/P ratio is FYI only. not a positive indicator.

wymond · 发表于 2011-10-16 07:20 PM

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