顶或许已经过了

kenwind

Read0nly 发表于 2011-8-31 00:41
对这一类的经济指标，华尔街的主力都早有预期，这样才能保证他们走在散户前头。这同近期的消费者信心指数 ...

Agree tha WS run ahead of the mass.
The news I got was that there are huge volumns open in the past 2 days on put option strike at 1150 expiring this week.
Let's see what happens.

dodofish

kenwind

Despite an abrupt drop in prices at Tuesday's cash close for the ESU1 contract from yesterday's daily high (1218.50), prices have rebounded in the overnight session and have stabilized above 1215.00.  The short-term price pattern remains constructive with an upside price target at 1232.00 but intermediate resistance at 1220.00.  The pre-open Globex session experienced a point of acceleration as it rebounded above 1210.00 which should continue to provide support through today's regular trading hours session. Today's session marks the end of the month which should provide some interesting rebalance flows targeted for the cash close.  The significant divergence between equity and bond performance over the month suggest the potential for asset allocation into equities and out of bonds.  There has been evidence for those types of flows since the August low but its worth noting that as funds build their equity exposure via index futures throughout the month, they will often sell futures at month end and replace the equity exposure with cash equities creating temporary divergence at the cash close between the cash index and the index futures.   

oldpigwang

回复 kenwind 的帖子

今天暴涨！傻了吧？历史规律不可抗拒。

balto

kenwind 发表于 2011-8-30 20:13
看不出我用心良苦，你就long吧，大胆long。

嗯，用心良苦，可惜运气实在不是一般的坏啊。这双底突破了，你就大胆空吧。。。

oldpigwang

今天给“[放炮] 顶或许已经过了”的帖子：
回复 kenwind 的帖子：今天暴涨！傻了吧？历史规律不可抗拒。

节后给“[放炮] 市场跌不下去了。。。”的帖子：
开跌！傻了吧。市场规律不可抗拒。

kenwind

oldpigwang 发表于 2011-8-31 09:56
回复 kenwind 的帖子

今天暴涨！傻了吧？历史规律不可抗拒。

No worry, I am very calm here. Just waiting for an ugly Sep.
It is you who jump up and dn all the time. Take it easy buddy.

kenwind

balto 发表于 2011-8-31 10:24
嗯，用心良苦，可惜运气实在不是一般的坏啊。这双底突破了，你就大胆空吧。。。

Just wait and see la. I am confident on the short.
The talk on the street is O8's pending stimulus plan to be announced next week on mtg refi won't change consumers behaviour at all. Also, do you really believe the plan to increase employment will work? He's be talking about it before his election and still can't make it. It is a structural loss of job, there is nothing he can fix.

oldpigwang

回复 kenwind 的帖子

可惜楼主的运气实在不是一般的坏啊。
逼空了。

balto

kenwind 发表于 2011-8-31 09:32
Just wait and see la. I am confident on the short.
The talk on the street is O8's pending stimulu ...

不要听花街耳语啦，等你都听到了，估计不是最后一批也是“被耳语”的对象。。。说过很多次，做空不比做多，玩中期玩的是口袋深浅，散户只能玩玩短期，timing是很重要的。。。不过你很自信，说了也白说，哈哈，只能祝你好运啦。。。

nasd

楼主兄弟对于这轮急涨的形势判断我是完全赞同的，只是动手的时机可能稍微早了一点。这本就是做空最难的地方：timing。

kenwind

nasd 发表于 2011-8-31 10:42
楼主兄弟对于这轮急涨的形势判断我是完全赞同的，只是动手的时机可能稍微早了一点。这本就是做空最难的地方 ...

I am not attempting to get the exact top and bottom. Leave it for someone who knows how to, but I doubt there are anyone out there. Getting the direction right and lock in 2/3 of the move is all I need.
Everybody has his own system and trading philosophy. My 401K self-managed account booked in all positive gains each year from the start, including 2007 and 2008; it beated SPX reutrn for all years. That's all I need, not try to be greedy.

nasd

回复 kenwind 的帖子

I know what you mean.  Just wanted to show you my support...  It appears that you like to enter a bit to the left, and I tend to wait a bit to the right.  By the way, great job with your IRA/401k management.

kenwind

nasd 发表于 2011-8-31 11:00
回复 kenwind 的帖子

I know what you mean.  Just wanted to show you my support...  It appears that y ...

I know that your post is of good intention. It really doesn't matter being on the left or on the right, as long as we make money.
Hope that great luck be with you and you make more money.

kenwind

balto 发表于 2011-8-31 10:37
不要听花街耳语啦，等你都听到了，估计不是最后一批也是“被耳语”的对象。。。说过很多次，做空不比做多 ...

The news we get is the prime service as a large institutional investor. You don't get these on the newspaer, TV or web. Just try to share a little bit, if you like it hope it helps, if not then just ignore it.

Read0nly

楼主等的那个顶应该是今天。接下来的两天是回调，甚至有可能延续到下周初。这是空头Cover的机会。短期俺还是看涨，1250还没碰呢。

balto

kenwind 发表于 2011-8-31 10:08
The news we get is the prime service as a large institutional investor. You don't get these on the ...

我知道你有内部管道，以前看过你的一些东东。。。but trust me，机构投资者也是被愚弄的对象，想想当初买雷曼债券的大户吧，再想想狗剩给大户设计的那些金融创新产品吧。。。insider trading不是说你inside就有优势的，timing还是靠自己拿捏。。。中长期我现在也很看熊啊，手头有以前被套的401k多仓，正在慢慢减仓，可短期做空我再看看。。。

nasd

made my first entry today with stop set.

kenwind

balto 发表于 2011-8-31 11:19
我知道你有内部管道，以前看过你的一些东东。。。but trust me，机构投资者也是被愚弄的对象，想想当初买 ...

Agree that there may be bad inside info out there. That's why they need us here to manage the portfolio. We establish judgement over info and put all info together through various channels. And the picture is found throgh mosaic theory, in a bulk park, we can figure out where the flows are. Of course, info is just a small part of our decision process, we have our own research as well.

kenwind

Read0nly 发表于 2011-8-31 11:14
楼主等的那个顶应该是今天。接下来的两天是回调，甚至有可能延续到下周初。这是空头Cover的机会。短期俺还是 ...

Next week, there will be lots of bad news from Europe. Greece funding issue, multiple notch downgrades of Italy and other Eur countries ahead. I doubt 1250 will be visited.