Chan study on spy (30 min bi)

littletiger

austinjoe 发表于 2011-8-31 23:03
Do you mind share how do you decide SPY -- "30 min down BI and up BI"? I see some only 3 K lines ...

laodao,

pls post.

I only "pao zhuan yin yu".

back to Chan.
it is  best to draw from 1min and roll it up. but i can not.
and i am test 30min BI for trading test(real money). occasionally, i draw 5min, i already see difference vs. 30min.
but,still, 30min may be sufficient.

for BI, I am using:
1.tradition def: 5 bar
plus
2. new def:4 bar with condition
plus
3. gap in opposite direction with condition. (the 3bar case you saw.)

austinjoe

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Thanks for your answer. I see how did you draw BI in 30min chart now.

   First, I'm not LaoDa. Just a student of CHAN :--o)  捷思 used to have daily SPX BI / DUAN in his blog, but unfortunately he stopped posting which I really think it's a big loss.  


  IMHO -- I'm not good at draw chart and post it here, so I'm using text for my understanding:  
1> From late 07/21/2011, SPY is  4 ZONE 5F down from 135 to 110 till 08/08/2011. This is a very strong down trend and need 30F ZONE to stop / rest it.

2> 08/09/2011 -- 08/17/2011, SPY is 2 ZONE 5F up.
3> 08/17/2011 -- 08/22/2011, SPY is 1 ZONE 5F down.
4> 08/22/2011 -- today, SPY is 2 ZONE 5F up,
1st ZONE [115.95, 117.32] completed with 3rd Buy 1F on 08/30/2011 13:00 EST spy 120.75.  
2nd ZONE [121.30, 121.87]  with min/max {119.94, 123.51} is build up today. It's start from end of 08/29/2011 SPY 121.43 -- 119.94 -- 121.87 -- 120.75 -- 123.51 -- 122.28 -- 123.12 -- 121.30 -- 123.40 -- 121.84 till  09/01/2011 11:15 EST. We need a 3rd buy or sell to finish this 2nd ZONE.

From 08/31/2011 morning high SPY 123.51, there are 7 1F DUAN 123.51 -- 122.28 -- 123.12 -- 121.30 -- 123.40 -- 121.84 -- 122.56 -- 120.78, the last DUAN is not finished yet. The next snap back -- 1F up DUAN have some check points:
1> Can't touch 121.30, weakest. Most likey 2nd 1F ZONE to make 1F down trend to leave 5F ZONE.
2> >121.30 but < 121.84, weaker. Could be 2nd 1F ZONE to make 1F down trend to leave 5F ZONE.
3> > 121.84 while < 122.28, weak. Still could make it possible for 2nd 1F ZONE, but will have new 5F ZONE around 122 area.

In case Friday NFP report make SPY shot high to pass 123.51, the support check will be 123.51 / 123.40 / 123.12 / 122.56.

littletiger

an example of 5min BI for today.
there is a 5min BI formed by 2-3 bars; I take it a Bi because it is a big gap up. With this up bi, the movement is
more complete.  (2 small 5min bi needs to be combined; therefore, sometimes, i do not plot them out at all.


Analysis based on it

we saw two down movements with 1 up movement. 5min fluctuates into 5min zone.
and this 1220 zone is the key for these 2 days.

if can not get up to 1220; then 2nd & 3rd sell;

otherwise, 中枢震荡。

therefore, either no position; or be prepared to short.

littletiger

very simple, sell into any rally. 3rd sell.

littletiger

bucks 发表于 2011-8-28 21:11
I think some of your "Bi"s are short and not valid. One Bi contains at least 5 valid bars.

let me quote from some other highhand:

大概是把A到B看做一笔走势了。  下面俺画的是经过包含处理后的K线图。  总共是七根。其中第四根如果看做是顶分到底分中间的一根。它比底分的那根就是第五根还低。就是说A到B不符合一笔走势。  这种情况下。你一定要把这看做一笔走势。也未尝不可。只是心里清楚就可以了。   这里看做一个震荡。和一笔的功效没有什么区别。都是可以当做中枢来用一下而已。

俺早就不画什么笔走势了。在实盘时就是看上一眼。大概是那么回事就可以了。你说A到B是一笔也好不是一笔也好。对判断走势有区别吗？ 千万不要纠缠这些本应该丢掉的东西。


i agree with him. this is not the important part of chan.

bucks

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you are absolutely right. I will not limit myself to exact definitions of CHAN's terms when I fully understand them. In fact I don't think CHAN himself strictly follow those definitions. He was indeed trying to unfold his unique perspective to dissect the price action and educate us, while his own trading is just intuitive within CHAN's framework.

But now I am still a learner, I'd better lay a solid foundation to walk before I could run. You mentioned the new 'Bi" definition, which I didn't find it in CHANS's 108 lessons. Any references to share?

thanks a lot for making this great post

littletiger

bucks 发表于 2011-9-3 07:54
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you are absolutely right. I will not limit myself to exact definitions of C ...

well, the truth is that i am a lowhand. and i am not very sure i am correctly identifying each bi and duan.
the new bi definition is in 108 chapters. read carefully.
basically, minimum 4 bars are needed between ding and di that form obvious ding and di.


the keys of chan that i understand so far
1. zone,
2. level of zone
3. divergency before and after zone
4. completion of up or downtrend

littletiger

littletiger 发表于 2011-9-2 21:24
very simple, sell into any rally. 3rd sell.

9.6 30min update is simple, find divergency of this up move (if SPY < 121) for a 3rd sell
9.6 udpate (5 min analysis)

gap down but bounce up and close HOD.
it is going to be 3rd sell.

from 5min chart,
1.after gap down and first bounce, the 2nd down (5min) bi forms <5min divergency, and this is the turning point.
2. then, the 5 up bi forms a quick 5min bi zone, then divergency causes a  bigger 5min down which ALMOST went into the zone. (the red line on the bottom) but did not touch it. It is a 3rd buy at 5min  (115.8).
3. the last 5 min up bi is strong, no divergency.

conclusion
a. tomorrow, there will another up movement.
b. if there is another down bi to form another 5 min bi around 116.8, then very likely to see final divergency after that
c. final resistence is 118 then 121


OR
if drops below 115.8, it is a very bearish move, sell into any weak rally after that.

littletiger

littletiger 发表于 2011-9-6 22:08
9.6 30min update is simple, find divergency of this up move (if SPY < 121) for a 3rd sell
9.6  ...

9.7, open above 118, then strong up movement, it is 1min (zone) uptrend; no actionable 5min short/sell point.
very likely touch 121.

littletiger

littletiger 发表于 2011-9-7 14:25
9.7, open above 118, then strong up movement, it is 1min (zone) uptrend; no actionable 5min short/ ...

9.7 update 4pm: close HOD. higher high and higher low. heading to 121.  

no shorting.

needs to wait tomo to see any weakness to decide buy or short.

littletiger

littletiger 发表于 2011-9-7 16:17
9.7 update 4pm: close HOD. higher high and higher low. heading to 121.  

no shorting.

9.8 udpate:

almost touched 121 target and formed 5min divergency; this 30min up bi is over.
then 3 5min down-up-down bi forms a 30min down bi.

no 30 min actionable plan because it is all below 30min (5min movement)

tomo :
check 119.5 and 120 resistence.

littletiger

littletiger 发表于 2011-9-7 14:25
9.7, open above 118, then strong up movement, it is 1min (zone) uptrend; no actionable 5min short/ ...

9.9 update:

9.7 open above 118, today gap down 118.
30 down bi has NOT completed yet.
5 min shows some divergency:
either form a zone; or 5min up bi on next monday.

below is sept.1 - sept.9 30 min (GREEN) SOME 5 MIN BI (BLUE)

littletiger

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littletiger

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sept.12 update.

30 min DOWN bi is over and a new 30 min UP bi and no 5min DIVG yet. therefore, more up is ahead.
observations of today's local bottom has "da jin", positive DIVG; NQ and RUT are outperforming DOW ...

surpport of SPY $115.6 - $116.3 and  $117.2-118 is resistence.

mengtt

littletiger

littletiger 发表于 2011-9-12 21:27
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sept.12 update.

surpport of SPY $115.6 - $116.3 and  $117.2-118 is resistence

update intraday of sept.13.
morning gap up then drops to 116.3 then rises to 118 precisely.

littletiger

littletiger 发表于 2011-9-13 10:40
update intraday of sept.13.
morning gap up then drops to 116.3 then rises to 118 precisely.

EOD, almost HOD; the up bi is NOT completed yet, may have more room up. there is some weakness and divergency.
but it is too early to short.  

plan: aggressive short: short if it drops below $118 after some rally in the morning
or 2nd entry, is short the 2nd rally and drop below $117.5.

littletiger

littletiger 发表于 2011-9-13 22:03
EOD, almost HOD; the up bi is NOT completed yet, may have more room up. there is some weakness and ...

may be close at HOD. But shorted SPY at $119.5; ready to cover at $118.5 or $120.5 if it keeps going up.

at this moment, the up bi is not over yet. so it is dangerous short. or too early to short

littletiger

littletiger 发表于 2011-9-14 14:40
may be close at HOD. But shorted SPY at $119.5; ready to cover at $118.5 or $120.5 if it keeps goi ...

stop out at 120.5.

bad trade.

littletiger

littletiger 发表于 2011-9-14 15:30
stop out at 120.5.  

bad trade.

entry too early.
no more short until
TNA below 43-42 and SPY below 118.5-118