06/13/2011 白天灌水

yj1200

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kenwind

FX Market Update - News flow and market developments have been fairly limited since Friday’s close, leaving markets generally quiet. Equities are flat, commodities are mixed, US yields are stable and the USD is modestly weaker. Most currencies are almost flat to Friday’s close. The only significant moves are a rally in CHF (up 0.7%) as it retraces some of last week’s losses and a weak NZD (down 1.1%) on the back of ongoing after shocks that are weighing on sentiment. CAD, GBP and AUD are each up 0.3%; while NOK, EUR, and JPY are all flat. There are no North American data releases expected today, which will leave comments from ECB President Trichet, the Fed’s Lacker and the ECB’s Draghi as the potential highlights. C.S.
Investors increase short exposure to USD - Last week’s CFTC data suggest  that leading into the ECB decision investors were eager to be long EUR, doubling their exposure and bringing the net long position to $9.5bn. Investors also added to their JPY position, but did not significantly move the long yen position off recent levels. Most interesting was the cautious turn on CAD, which saw a more than doubling in the gross short position (see top chart), bringing the net long CAD position down to just $1.4bn and highlighting that for the first time since the winter investors are willing to short CAD. C.S.

zhizhengwd

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cc2265

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kenwind

EURUSD (1.4360) • EUR has retraced 0.3% of last week’s losses as we enter the North American open. There have not been any major data releases, with the focus on developments in the European bond market and Greece. EUR’s inability to rally on President’s Trichet’s suggestion that interest rates will rise at the July meeting is concerning. There are several valid reasons for the currency’s weakness, including: an increase in the ECB’s expectations of inflation that was below the market’s expectation, hinting that interest rate hikes after July may slow; realization that the ECB’s policy response to rising inflation might prove to be economically harmful; and escalating uncertainty over how Europe will deal with Greece. Over the weekend there were several comments from politicians and policy makers that suggest we are a long way from certainty over Greece. The key hurdles remain unchanged: 1) who will bear the brunt of Greek bond exposure; 2) who supports a voluntary rolling over of debt; and 3) what the details of a new aid package might be. Bundesbank President Weidmann commented that though a Greek default would not be the best choice for the country, it would not be detrimental for the euro. This is in line with our base case, one which sees Europe muddle through. We hold a year-end 1.50 EUR forecast. C.S.

kenwind

Christchurch New Zealand was hit by another two earthquakes overnight (5.2 and 6.0 on the Richter scale).  The city was already suffering through rebuilding efforts from the massive Earthquake earlier in the year.  Power and phone services around the city are down and it is reported another 50 buildings will have to come down.  NZD/USD dropped close to 1 big figure from .8210/20 down to .8115/25.

China's efforts to dry up liquidity to cool the economy continues to weigh in Asia.  Bank lending fell well below levels that were seen last year and China's money supply rose at its smallest monthly expansion since 2008.   Copper prices slipped 1.3% on Friday after May imports were released and fell well short of analyst expectations.

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