2011-05-23 Monetary Game vs. Fiscal Constraint

Whigs

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老姚，你越来越成为偶的偶像了！！！

yaobooyao

ctcld 发表于 2011-5-23 23:27
对准老姚开炮：

1，零利率政策不是Monetary Game，而是在经济通缩环境的唯一正确的措施。这也是从大萧条 ...

这才是俺想要的反应。 你连俺的梦话都听明白了。牛！

向我开炮。

chickencoop

This is such a big topic but I think you guys have given it a good start. I have a few comments about liquidity and real economic growth.

Empirically, there is evidence to support and oppose the conjecture that positive shock of liquidity can spur real economic growth. Not so surprisingly, the response to liquidity shocks depends on the size of economy. Most believe that the positive liquidity shock helps rich countries in an economic downturn in terms of real growth. The size of effects is debatable though. One of the rationales that liquidity spurs real growth is that long-term commitment of capital needs a liquid market. Like someone said, investors will come if they can leave.

Most economists I read oppose restrictive fiscal policy at this point of recovery. I agree with them. Well put by ctcld laoda, US debts are still good value to other countries. At this stage of global economy, they will remain good value for a long time. Political gestures aside, loose fiscal policy is still good for the global economy.

yaobooyao

chickencoop 发表于 2011-5-24 07:59
This is such a big topic but I think you guys have given it a good start. I have a few comments abou ...

this post is good.

What I found annoying is that economic theories are always relatively true,  it's always a half/half.

But what I see is very true right now in the stock market  -  valuation ceiling over-write the liqudity supply surplus.  People start to sell at the higher levels (recently the lower highs) when it's reached, because valuation is too rich for most of the stocks by that altitude.  

So let's move our focus to the lower side,  I am asking myself this question - ' by which level / what time,  the investors will see the valuation make sense , and start to reload?'

chickencoop

yaobooyao 发表于 2011-5-24 09:56
this post is good.

What I found annoying is that economic theories are always relatively true,  ...

Economists are not good at forecasting (pretty ironic, huh?) and they write papers to make excuses for themselves. Needless to say, the market is at a very critical and delicate point. The extra liquidity does create its own problems when it makes tidal waves to coming and going in the same direction. Valuation is also so tied up with the prospects of this recovery and future policies. Until labor market is much improved and housing market is much improved I think the market will remain volatile, which means the market sentiments could flip in a moment.

yaobooyao

重新翻看这个旧帖子，没想到今天的市场舆论竟然十分吻合(个人以为）。

5月23日，不会有人拿我的梦话当真吧。