到今天为止MM还在按去年四月做头，明天可能还要涨。

ddd

俺很怀疑MM会简单重复四月的走法。但如果周三再跌，周五出新低，下周就有意思了。
Read0nly 发表于 2011-1-31 22:47

   周五就见分晓了？小心没大错。在SPX>1300 again 之前不trade也没损失什么，因为后边还有得是机会。能想象一下在有生之年看到六位数的DJ30吗？

rollinglines

这个真的有点太装了。。。 如果真的享受，那只能说太。。。

回复 6# X!nG

ddd

给大家讲个“小故事”。这个故事非常地短，只有一句话：我1981年来美国，有生以来第一次到银行开自己的账户，银行说开个Money Market Savings Account吧，有12%利息。

好了，故事后面再讲几句，我那时什么感觉也没有，完全不了解12%利息是个什么概念。那时听同学们说工作非常不好找，听老师们说房子非常难卖。

很快，股市大跳，经济上升，房市大涨。后来才知道，那是74年经济危机的结局。

如果在不远的将来银行又要付你double digits的利息了，你就知道，股价要一去不复返了，later，房价也要一去不复返了。之后很多年，你仍不断地听到人们发牢骚，说实际生活水平没提反降，那是一年不如一年了。

听60年代来美国的人说，50年代才是美国的经济高峰，那时什么都是美国产的最好。70年代来美国的人说，那时的日子可好过多了，鸡蛋一毛钱一打，汽油加过18c的，一个人在学校里做个TA，那钱两口子是用也用不完。现在有多少两口子打工那钱是用不完的哪？

dommy

这位同学，这个后面是有典故的．如果您不是马甲的话，星大被无数人围攻谩骂的事情估计您不知道．后来事实证明了星大正确，追随者越来越多．俺想星大欢迎漫骂，除了不介意之外，还有contrarian的因素在里面－－反对者越多越好，而如果全体都牛了的话，反而需要小心了．

这个真的有点太装了。。。 如果真的享受，那只能说太。。。

回复  X!nG
rollinglines 发表于 2011-2-1 02:07

面瓜

通胀是对既有的贫富差距的“偿还”，不是最大的问题，尤其当很多平民有贷款的时候。
当然，持续的通胀会把社会底层持续的“锁在”底层。

药还是要吃的，虽然有副作用。

面瓜

给大家讲个“小故事”。这个故事非常地短，只有一句话：我1981年来美国，有生以来第一次到银行开自己的账户 ...
ddd 发表于 2011-2-1 02:23

    这个故事好，我要转载自己的blog

svntn

If talking about bullish, I am more bullish than a lot of people here. Why, bloomberg radio once said Fed is internally required to buy any stock to push up market, with any single holding ceiling at 35% of the outstanding share. But it is nothing to do with real economy. eventually, reality will catch up. If you think you are nimble and experienced, then ride the wave. just remember when the trend changes in a year or two, NOT THIS YEAR, get off.
回复 12# Diver

面瓜

bloomberg radio once said Fed is internally required to buy any stock to push up market, with any single holding ceiling at 35% of the outstanding share. svntn 发表于 2011-2-1 08:55

德国村支书

看样子还是等形式稍微明了一点再说

ctcld

楼主不能这么形而上学。

不知你是否看过我对UUP VS SPX的分析。 现在的背景和去年4-5 不一样。当然过了整数点后会回探，但不回有去年4-5月那样的回调，说白了，现在的全球的FA要好多了。- 2C

st-watcher

回复 23# ddd


    WOW, dd came here in 1981! I knew only two persons came at that time. One of them planned to marry a Taiwanese girl, but Chinese Consulate told him they never had such a case before, so could not approve it. Ah, those good old time!

maldini

2HM trend day

北京哥哥

刚看到你这句，很喜欢，很享受！

谢谢。
X!nG 发表于 2011-1-31 23:58

    哈哈，想想我当时开始分析基本面时也有过他同样的问题，你也应该有过吧？

maldini

2HM trend day
maldini 发表于 2011-2-1 12:08

    ft,回错主题了。。

layschips

If talking about bullish, I am more bullish than a lot of people here. Why, bloomberg radio once sai ...
svntn 发表于 2011-2-1 08:55

according to Wikipedia, NYSE market capitalization was US$13.39 trillion as of Dec 2010. so 35% is 4.6T! 600B is nothing at all if it's true!

nasd

我说句中立的话，目前股市涨不涨，根本不是由便宜不便宜决定的，而是动能加上QE2决定的。大家都在想着STRON ...
Diver 发表于 2011-2-1 00:30

I totally agree with your "动能加上QE2" assessment.   Well written!

temujin

从宏观经济层面讲，俺认为不再会有正真意义的大牛市出现，人类社会的发展已经进入高原平台期，这是金融泡沫出现的必然。这是俺在操作中过分看熊的原因，有时间再谈谈细节。俺觉得从现在起，股市上涨的主要动力可能是通货膨胀。
Read0nly 发表于 2011-2-1 01:54

Those are big words, someone famously declared "the End of History", too bad you're not as famous.

nasd

Those are big words, someone famously declared "the End of History", too bad you're not as famou ...
temujin 发表于 2011-2-1 16:25

easy, dude!  this is a forum and people are free to express their thoughts, as long as they have a reason.  whether someone is famous or not is 100% irrelevant to whether his/her conclusion is right.

temujin

easy, dude!  this is a forum and people are free to express their thoughts, as long as they have ...
nasd 发表于 2011-2-1 16:31

And I'm free to express mine?  Declaring that there won't be ever real bull markets is huge statement to make.

nasd

And I'm free to express mine?  Declaring that there won't be ever real bull markets is huge stat ...
temujin 发表于 2011-2-1 16:38

Of course you may post to agree or disagree and that's what cobra wants and what makes a forum informative.  If we use a friendly discussive tone, our opinions might be even more convincing.  I don't agree with LZ 100% either, but he has his point and deserves respect.