我糊涂了。

revolver

回复 18# colderdown


   

Anyway, I don't know we will have inflation or not. If so, bond market will be very ugly. HYG can serve as equity market leading indicator at zero inflation expection condition. However, it won't work if we have inflation expectation.

I like this analysis. By the way, based on Austrian definition inflation happens together with fiat money expansion, it's just that it flows to credit first before inevitably causes price increase. So what we really don't know yet (and have to monitor closely) is when the rampant price increase starts, which will diverge high yield bond from large cap stock.

colderdown

回复 20# revolver

我胡说啊，欧洲一点希望没有，夕阳而已，即没有中国的人口红利，也没有美国的体制红利。欧元更是一个政治产物，几大货币里最不合理的一个。美元走强是相对其它货币而言，对real asset来说，强不了。金子早就跑赢标普指数了，长期来看，到$2000以前，没什么可担心的，我等它掉到1100-1200都等烦了。中国股市大调整基本已经完成，关键是M2和实实在在的收入增长，这点，我的朋友已经感叹招人难很多回了，所以中国有资格是通胀型牛市的根本形态。而美股，在几个月内，从现在这个位置涨10%，和掉10%是机率各半，死皮上1300我会重仓空。

colderdown

回复 21# revolver

TNND，有没有通胀不好说，starsucks刚涨了俺的咖啡价是真的。不管其它，抄多一切生活必须品是正招儿。日本不是通缩吗，现在一碗面的价格可比十年前贵多了。多好的主意啊，俺“大风”里讲搞金子，俺现在要大吹特吹农产品啦。

dzyx

难得糊涂，糊涂难得。

X!nG

我猜冷兄是想说，通常hyg领先股市。通常死皮开涨，hyg也会开涨。但这两天死皮大涨，hyg没follow。 ...
draguide 发表于 2010-12-3 06:25

这个应该不难理解...

hyg是高息债券，啥概念？债券里的风险品，所以简单的把她理解成风险资产的一类都可以，因此跟随其他风险资产（股票，商品，高息货币）运动很容易理解吧。

而近期债券类资产在数据持续向好和大幅通胀预期下整体走弱，高息债券亦不例外。我这两天几次提到的一个重要数据是债券基金结束了连续99周的净流入，在过去的两周净流出...

xz214

deepdark

colderdown

回复 25# X!nG

高息债卷走势有两层意思，一当然是作为债卷的特征，二是反映债卷交易者对市场风险的评估。如果仅是星兄的债卷资金流出的解释，我就很难理解中期里，从六月高息债卷一直走高的趋势了。我的理解是债卷交易者对市场风险并不悲观。股票门槛低，业余的多，债卷交易者的态度更靠谱。所以我说我现在比较迷惑，是通胀预估？还是短期不看好？这也是我6月不敢做大熊，现在不敢做大牛的原因。猪坚强吧！

李隆基

下周到顶了！

revolver

回复 22# colderdown

revolver

回复 22# colderdown


    Some different views for consideration.

As a whole, EU doesn't have trade imbalance with external world. The overall debt ratio is also under control. Greece & Ireland are heavily in debt but their GDP weights are also very low within EMU. Spain's problem is more troublesome as it currently counts about 10% of EMU GDP. But it is also easier to deal with because most of problem is in private sector but not government deficit. If the government is forced to cut off the support to private banks, then there wouldn't be much menace to sovereign credit although private sector had to take a haircut.

Overall, I am more optimistic on EURO as the fact of separate sovereignty actually gives Germany the chance to tackle one problem at a time, while it's impossible for US to solve the debt crisis state by state. EURO is a loose however also a very flessible system, it will survive and very possibly will replace USD as the world number 1 currency. The current status of world reserve currency indeed becomes a burden and post big menace to the US economy. A sell-off from any US debt holders from China, Japan to middle east would cause great trouble to US, while EURO most likely will only benefit from this kind of turbulence.

hbw

回复 28# colderdown


    正解：“股票门槛低，业余的多，债卷交易者的态度更靠谱。”

dividend_growth

Germany's economy is too export oriented. Whenever Euro appreciates a great deal vs USD, its economy goes to the dump.

You may think Ireland and Greece are small, but the biggest bubble in Eurozone is Spain, and the country with the worst demographics is Italy. Germany alone can't pull all these losers out of slump, especially NOT when Euro is appreciating vs USD. So the trick to save Euro is really a slow and gradual depreciation.

colderdown

回复 33# dividend_growth


    I agree with you on this. It is very unlikely EURO will replace USD as world reserve currency.

dividend_growth

The only way for USD to lose its reserve currency within next 10 years is to lose a major war.

The US can live its profligate way for a long time as long as its military supremacy is secure. Too many economists underestimate the power of the gun barrel.

draguide

The only way for USD to lose its reserve currency within next 10 years is to lose a major war.

Th ...
dividend_growth 发表于 2010-12-6 15:15

    dude, you rock!

revolver

回复 33# dividend_growth


    Agree that currently Germany is a export-oriented nation, but I believe things will change after this crisis. Germany is taking over control under the mask of ECB, conquer the European nations 1 by 1 with its rescue package, and eventually replace London as European financial centre within 5 years. At that time Germany will have manufacturing & financial as its dual engines and no longer depend on export, as PIIGS will be converted to export countries to earn themselves out of debt from ECB.

And Germany is actually very clear about this strategy. They targetted the entire Europe from the beginning and didn't underestimated the challenge. That's why from the beginning they have insisted IMF to have a stake in the game, although Greece is merely 1% of EU GDP.

dividend_growth

回复 37# revolver

Your assumption is based on that PIIGS countries have worthy products to export to Germany and that hedonistic PIIGS people are willing to slave labor like the Chinese.

Ireland may be able to transfer itself into a competitive export economy, but the odds of those mediterranean slackers to pull it off are excessively slim.

revolver

回复 35# dividend_growth


    firstly, the history after WII has proved that US can only win battles but not wars. Look at Korea & Japan, and Iraq & Afkanstan. What US can do is to create tession and jump in as a protector/threater, but once into fight they they can seldom win.

Second, all super powers collapse from within, military strength doesn't solve internal problem if not cause more. the latest example is USSR.

revolver

回复 38# dividend_growth


    Who knows? Before the reform Chinese labor force was infamous for laziness and low productivity. But once the rule of game changes, people has to change. German can open factories in Greece, if Greeks don't want to work cheap labors can be imported from foreign countries. Germany itself imported millions of Turkish after war. After all it's a game of survival.