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发表于 2010-8-2 12:28 PM
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tjtjking 发表于 2010-8-2 14:21 
Japan’s Mrs Watanabes, the shorthand name for the large number of Japanese retail investors, are being restricted in the amount they can borrow to finance their bets in the currency markets, in a move by the Japanese regulator to eliminate what it sees as excessive speculation by inexperienced traders.
The new rule on margin trading, which came into effect on Sunday, limits the amount that retail traders can borrow to 50 times the amount of collateral used. From next year, rules will be tightened further to lower the limit to 25 times. There were no limits imposed before.
The Mrs Watanabes of Japan, ranging from the stereotypical housewives who control the family’s finances to businessmen trading in their lunch breaks, are a significant force in the market. Rock-bottom interest rates at home over the best part of a decade have prompted them to play the currency markets in search of higher returns. Rough estimates suggest they can account for as much as 20-30 per cent of the volume of the Tokyo spot currency market.
Regulators have become concerned because foreign exchange brokerages can offer retail investors leverage of as high as 400 times. Ahead of the rule change, most retail investors unwound yen positions which contravened the new leverage limits, contributing to the currency’s climb late last week to its highest this year, one trader said.
Junya Tanase, a currency strategist at JPMorgan Chase, cautioned that there could be some market volatility in early trading on Monday as traders unwind remaining positions at a time when the market tends to be illiquid.
The impact on the yen market is likely to be much more pronounced next year with the further lowering of borrowing limits. Traders said that without the added leverage, some small traders could stop trading altogether. Yuji Saito, a director in the FX department at Crédit Agricole in Tokyo, said market liquidity in Tokyo was likely to fall. Wealthier traders, however, might open accounts overseas and trade without restriction from there, he said.
One currency day trader, who claimed not to use leverage of more than 50 times, posted a blog saying: “It feels like [currency trading] will be a no-go for people who aren’t rich. It’ll become quite an investment. Well, there are probably only a few people who win in the currency markets, so a good result might be that the number of people getting indebted will drop.” |
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