CoolMax 发表于 2011-7-11 14:07 
老姚，经典TA。
反弹超过Fibo61.8%，就不是反弹了，是趋势逆转。
Lao Da, what you said about your friend's house is likely an exception, not the norm with regard to the housing marklet.
Among the 20 or so major metropolitan areas in the US, there are probably no more than 2 o 3 (e.g., DC, SF) where real estate price now is at even with or higher than that in 2006. Even in Southern Cal where I am, current price level is probably just around the same numbers as in 2003 or 2004. More extrenme cases would be in cities like Vegas, Phenix, Chicago or south Florida (50% hari cut is the norm). Just an example based on my own experience recently, in the majority of neighborhoods in Chicago area, you may get properties sailing for $350k in 2007 (when the peak was printed) for around 150k now (or even lower if foreclosed properties in poor conditions).
The economy might indeed be not as bad as it may look now. But the housing market in the US overall is definitely a different story.
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